The Five Pound Prize
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 236 (42 on the archive and 194 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 103
Defender wins (British): 133
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1040 | 1023 | 52% | 2025-10-31 | Won |
| 1008 | 1061 | 42% | 2025-09-10 | Won |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2025-07-29 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1334 | 40% | 2025-02-09 | Lost |
| 985 | 1035 | 43% | 2025-01-10 | Won |
| 1040 | 953 | 62% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 1021 | 1018 | 50% | 2022-08-05 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1125 | 64% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1076 | 70% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1221 | 38% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 953 | 1221 | 18% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2018-08-17 | Won |
| 916 | 1079 | 28% | 2018-01-20 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1070 | 47% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1142 | 50% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 972 | 1158 | 26% | 2016-01-15 | Won |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-12-10 | Lost |
| 948 | 1226 | 17% | 2014-10-11 | Won |
| 1136 | 1126 | 51% | 2014-07-01 | Won |
| 1132 | 1263 | 32% | 2014-04-11 | Won |
| 1007 | 1099 | 37% | 2014-03-21 | Won |
| 945 | 1046 | 36% | 2013-12-08 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1071 | 62% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 986 | 45% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1087 | 905 | 74% | 2010-03-17 | Won |
| 1060 | 1171 | 35% | 2010-02-26 | Lost |
| 1083 | 939 | 70% | 2009-08-01 | Won |
| 1231 | 1434 | 24% | 2008-05-18 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1167 | 46% | 2008-03-08 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1097 | 67% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 973 | 1219 | 20% | 2006-03-24 | Won |
| 1212 | 1056 | 71% | 2006-03-17 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 2006-02-16 | Lost |
| 1286 | 1219 | 60% | 2006-01-30 | Lost |
| 1266 | 1263 | 50% | 2005-11-20 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1060 | 66% | 2005-07-27 | Lost |
| 1071 | 1060 | 52% | 2005-07-19 | Lost |
| 1233 | 1342 | 35% | 2005-06-25 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1209 | 26% | 2005-05-14 | Lost |
| 753 | 1140 | 10% | 2005-04-01 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1077.5 vs 1122.9 has a 43.51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).