The Five Pound Prize
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 221 (29 on the archive and 192 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 96
Defender wins (British): 125
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1023 | 989 | 55% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 1065 | 1095 | 46% | 2022-08-05 | Lost |
| 1260 | 1111 | 70% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1260 | 1188 | 60% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1259 | 19% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1259 | 33% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1082 | 79% | 2018-08-17 | Won |
| 917 | 1128 | 23% | 2018-01-20 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1064 | 53% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 971 | 1158 | 25% | 2016-01-15 | Won |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-12-10 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1223 | 28% | 2014-10-11 | Won |
| 1126 | 1130 | 49% | 2014-07-01 | Won |
| 1004 | 1100 | 37% | 2014-03-21 | Won |
| 946 | 1084 | 31% | 2013-12-08 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1067 | 61% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 951 | 50% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1082 | 901 | 74% | 2010-03-17 | Won |
| 1037 | 939 | 64% | 2009-08-01 | Won |
| 1225 | 1400 | 27% | 2008-05-18 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1055 | 61% | 2008-03-08 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 982 | 1310 | 13% | 2006-03-24 | Won |
| 940 | 1044 | 35% | 2006-03-17 | Lost |
| 1285 | 1310 | 46% | 2006-01-30 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1002 | 68% | 2005-07-27 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1218 | 27% | 2005-05-14 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1084.9 vs 1111.6 has a 46.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).