The Five Pound Prize
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 223 (30 on the archive and 193 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 98
Defender wins (British): 125
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 986 | 988 | 50% | 2025-01-10 | Won |
| 1069 | 1007 | 59% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 1084 | 1058 | 54% | 2022-08-05 | Lost |
| 1282 | 1217 | 59% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1282 | 1154 | 68% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1193 | 31% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1193 | 41% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1316 | 1096 | 78% | 2018-08-17 | Won |
| 885 | 1219 | 13% | 2018-01-20 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1064 | 50% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 924 | 1158 | 21% | 2016-01-15 | Won |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-12-10 | Lost |
| 988 | 1223 | 21% | 2014-10-11 | Won |
| 1151 | 1137 | 52% | 2014-07-01 | Won |
| 1008 | 1099 | 37% | 2014-03-21 | Won |
| 945 | 1061 | 34% | 2013-12-08 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1066 | 62% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 1003 | 43% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1060 | 901 | 71% | 2010-03-17 | Won |
| 1114 | 939 | 73% | 2009-08-01 | Won |
| 1226 | 1407 | 26% | 2008-05-18 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1010 | 67% | 2008-03-08 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1316 | 1109 | 77% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 982 | 1316 | 13% | 2006-03-24 | Won |
| 940 | 1043 | 36% | 2006-03-17 | Lost |
| 1285 | 1316 | 46% | 2006-01-30 | Lost |
| 1210 | 976 | 79% | 2005-07-27 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1218 | 31% | 2005-05-14 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1088.4 vs 1107.7 has a 47.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).