Baking Bread
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 140 (59 on the archive and 81 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 76
Defender wins (Russian): 61
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1018 | 948 | 60% | 2024-12-01 | Won |
| 948 | 1009 | 41% | 2024-09-23 | Won |
| 1036 | 1036 | 50% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2024-02-03 | Lost |
| 1221 | 1250 | 46% | 2023-12-01 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1058 | 50% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1148 | 948 | 76% | 2022-05-10 | Won |
| 1053 | 966 | 62% | 2021-10-29 | Won |
| 977 | 894 | 62% | 2021-09-05 | Won |
| 1034 | 1007 | 54% | 2021-07-13 | Won |
| 1038 | 1030 | 51% | 2021-02-07 | Tied |
| 964 | 998 | 45% | 2021-01-27 | Won |
| 1158 | 1007 | 70% | 2020-12-27 | Won |
| 1125 | 1007 | 66% | 2020-11-30 | Lost |
| 977 | 1078 | 36% | 2020-08-27 | Won |
| 1027 | 1053 | 46% | 2020-06-30 | Won |
| 959 | 1027 | 40% | 2020-03-31 | Won |
| 959 | 1062 | 36% | 2019-12-29 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1110 | 59% | 2019-12-11 | Won |
| 1204 | 948 | 81% | 2019-12-03 | Won |
| 1273 | 977 | 85% | 2019-10-20 | Won |
| 989 | 948 | 56% | 2019-04-24 | Won |
| 1062 | 934 | 68% | 2018-06-03 | Won |
| 911 | 1062 | 30% | 2017-10-28 | Lost |
| 933 | 1062 | 32% | 2017-10-19 | Tied |
| 1140 | 955 | 74% | 2017-09-22 | Won |
| 926 | 892 | 55% | 2017-07-23 | Won |
| 948 | 881 | 60% | 2016-09-04 | Tied |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2015-10-06 | Lost |
| 847 | 929 | 38% | 2015-07-04 | Lost |
| 1023 | 959 | 59% | 2015-03-22 | Won |
| 939 | 969 | 46% | 2014-10-24 | Won |
| 1209 | 1209 | 50% | 2014-07-05 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1209 | 50% | 2014-04-26 | Lost |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-03-27 | Won |
| 948 | 1053 | 35% | 2013-12-21 | Lost |
| 960 | 951 | 51% | 2012-09-27 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1215 | 30% | 2012-06-23 | Lost |
| 959 | 948 | 52% | 2012-03-01 | Won |
| 1047 | 1056 | 49% | 2011-11-20 | Won |
| 1037 | 1141 | 35% | 2011-06-04 | Lost |
| 985 | 943 | 56% | 2011-02-25 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
| 1018 | 983 | 55% | 2010-11-17 | Won |
| 914 | 1045 | 32% | 2009-11-18 | Lost |
| 914 | 1045 | 32% | 2009-11-18 | Lost |
| 959 | 1215 | 19% | 2009-04-29 | Won |
| 1072 | 1014 | 58% | 2009-02-11 | Lost |
| 948 | 992 | 44% | 2009-01-17 | Lost |
| 943 | 1042 | 36% | 2009-01-03 | Lost |
| 977 | 919 | 58% | 2008-10-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1012 | 49% | 2008-07-06 | Lost |
| 1056 | 901 | 71% | 2007-10-25 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-03-04 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-03-04 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-02-19 | Won |
| 1001 | 937 | 59% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2007-01-21 | Won |
| 984 | 1094 | 35% | 2006-08-15 | Lost |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1022.2 vs 1016.3 has a 50.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).