Baking Bread
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 64
Attacker wins (German): 34
Defender wins (Russian): 27
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 954 | 1047 | 37% | 2026-06-26 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 992 | 53% | 2025-05-23 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1038 | 47% | 2025-04-24 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2024-12-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 986 | 52% | 2024-09-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2024-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1048 | 1048 | 50% | 2024-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1288 | 16% | 2023-12-01 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2023-03-20 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2022-05-10 | | Won |
| 969 | 966 | 50% | 2021-10-29 | | Won |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-09-05 | | Won |
| 1012 | 996 | 52% | 2021-07-13 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-02-07 | | Tied |
| 964 | 1000 | 45% | 2021-01-27 | | Won |
| 1092 | 996 | 63% | 2020-12-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2020-11-30 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2020-11-16 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2020-08-27 | | Won |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-06-30 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1028 | 48% | 2020-03-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2019-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1172 | 1000 | 73% | 2019-12-11 | | Won |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2019-12-03 | | Won |
| 1348 | 989 | 89% | 2019-10-20 | | Won |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2019-04-24 | | Won |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-06-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2017-10-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2017-10-19 | | Tied |
| 1075 | 950 | 67% | 2017-09-22 | | Won |
| 926 | 881 | 56% | 2017-07-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 889 | 65% | 2016-09-04 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2015-10-06 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2015-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1016 | 48% | 2015-03-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2014-10-24 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2014-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2014-07-05 | | Lost |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2014-04-26 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2014-03-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2013-12-21 | | Lost |
| 960 | 951 | 51% | 2012-09-27 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 1215 | 30% | 2012-06-23 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2012-03-01 | | Won |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2011-11-20 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2011-06-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2011-02-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1016 | 48% | 2011-01-01 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2010-11-17 | | Won |
| 919 | 1045 | 33% | 2009-11-18 | | Lost |
| 919 | 1045 | 33% | 2009-11-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1215 | 22% | 2009-04-29 | | Won |
| 1096 | 1022 | 60% | 2009-02-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2009-01-17 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1042 | 36% | 2009-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 906 | 63% | 2008-10-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2008-07-06 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 893 | 83% | 2007-10-25 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-03-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2007-03-04 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-02-19 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 832 | 72% | 2007-01-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2006-08-15 | | Lost |
Attacking (34 wins) average ELOs: 1019.2 vs 1017.1 has a 50.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).