The Prelude to Spring
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 90 (14 on the archive and 76 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 51
Defender wins (German): 38
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 961 | 1002 | 44% | 2024-12-31 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-07-07 | Lost |
| 1146 | 933 | 77% | 2024-01-17 | Won |
| 1218 | 964 | 81% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1069 | 42% | 2012-05-28 | Won |
| 925 | 1099 | 27% | 2012-03-03 | Lost |
| 1152 | 953 | 76% | 2009-10-18 | Won |
| 968 | 1085 | 34% | 2009-02-18 | Lost |
| 753 | 919 | 28% | 2009-01-16 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1189 | 35% | 2007-02-18 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2007-02-14 | Won |
| 1343 | 1018 | 87% | 2006-12-06 | Won |
| 1034 | 911 | 67% | 2006-09-06 | Won |
| 1072 | 1036 | 55% | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1061.1 vs 1025.8 has a 55.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).