The Prelude to Spring
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 88 (12 on the archive and 76 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 37
Defender wins (German): 50
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1083 | 1083 | 50% | 2024-07-07 | Lost |
| 990 | 1028 | 45% | 2024-01-17 | Won |
| 1208 | 1000 | 77% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1070 | 50% | 2012-05-28 | Won |
| 1005 | 1099 | 37% | 2012-03-03 | Lost |
| 1005 | 964 | 56% | 2009-10-18 | Won |
| 881 | 1079 | 24% | 2009-02-18 | Lost |
| 1006 | 920 | 62% | 2009-01-16 | Lost |
| 859 | 859 | 50% | 2007-02-18 | Won |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2007-02-14 | Won |
| 1047 | 913 | 68% | 2006-09-06 | Won |
| 1099 | 1113 | 48% | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1029.2 vs 1018.7 has a 51.51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).