Monty's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 18
Defender wins (British): 48
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 2
Defender wins (British): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2025-08-13 | Won |
| 1080 | 1080 | 50% | 2025-01-03 | Won |
| 966 | 937 | 54% | 2024-12-27 | Lost |
| 990 | 937 | 58% | 2024-10-25 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2024-06-25 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1033 | 50% | 2024-04-15 | Lost |
| 1282 | 937 | 88% | 2024-02-26 | Won |
| 1064 | 1142 | 39% | 2024-01-13 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1172 | 46% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 951 | 1015 | 41% | 2023-07-11 | Won |
| 1114 | 937 | 73% | 2023-07-04 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 1145 | 937 | 77% | 2023-02-25 | Lost |
| 963 | 1041 | 39% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1130 | 50% | 2022-08-28 | Lost |
| 893 | 881 | 52% | 2022-04-03 | Lost |
| 1015 | 951 | 59% | 2021-11-27 | Lost |
| 881 | 1063 | 26% | 2021-09-06 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1144 | 32% | 2021-08-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1041 | 45% | 2021-04-12 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1017 | 58% | 2021-02-05 | Lost |
| 850 | 1017 | 28% | 2021-02-05 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1030 | 53% | 2021-01-14 | Lost |
| 982 | 1041 | 42% | 2020-12-18 | Won |
| 943 | 971 | 46% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1173 | 50% | 2020-08-16 | Lost |
| 992 | 992 | 50% | 2020-05-09 | Lost |
| 1163 | 937 | 79% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1163 | 992 | 73% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 967 | 1099 | 32% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1163 | 42% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 864 | 942 | 39% | 2020-01-04 | Lost |
| 937 | 1228 | 16% | 2019-09-12 | Lost |
| 1026 | 989 | 55% | 2019-06-30 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1130 | 33% | 2019-02-23 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2019-02-23 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1038 | 48% | 2018-07-12 | Won |
| 1026 | 1038 | 48% | 2018-07-10 | Lost |
| 886 | 893 | 49% | 2018-06-29 | Lost |
| 893 | 886 | 51% | 2018-06-28 | Lost |
| 1061 | 985 | 61% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1094 | 50% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1079 | 1092 | 48% | 2016-09-15 | Lost |
| 879 | 937 | 42% | 2016-09-11 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1130 | 42% | 2016-05-01 | Lost |
| 846 | 1040 | 25% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 951 | 987 | 45% | 2015-06-01 | Lost |
| 1416 | 943 | 94% | 2015-01-28 | Won |
| 1212 | 1220 | 49% | 2014-12-14 | Lost |
| 869 | 846 | 53% | 2014-07-21 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1125 | 39% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-05-07 | Lost |
| 1017 | 937 | 61% | 2013-05-03 | Lost |
| 1431 | 1178 | 81% | 2013-04-01 | Won |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2013-02-18 | Lost |
| 985 | 1061 | 39% | 2012-02-08 | Lost |
| 956 | 1044 | 38% | 2012-02-01 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1062 | 44% | 2010-04-09 | Lost |
| 991 | 1012 | 47% | 2010-03-15 | Lost |
| 1006 | 956 | 57% | 2009-07-20 | Lost |
| 1039 | 987 | 57% | 2009-03-22 | Lost |
| 990 | 937 | 58% | 2009-02-22 | Won |
| 919 | 976 | 42% | 2008-11-10 | Won |
| 1019 | 1063 | 44% | 2008-07-25 | Won |
| 1062 | 939 | 67% | 2008-03-29 | Won |
| 1151 | 966 | 74% | 2008-02-22 | Lost |
| 872 | 960 | 38% | 2007-11-01 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-07-14 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-06-09 | Won |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1028.3 vs 1023.1 has a 50.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).