Agony at Arnautovo
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 131 (23 on the archive and 108 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 77
Defender wins (Italian): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 982 | 991 | 49% | 2022-03-19 | Won |
| 1065 | 1030 | 55% | 2022-03-19 | Won |
| 1014 | 1021 | 49% | 2021-04-16 | Won |
| 1047 | 1059 | 48% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1102 | 1075 | 54% | 2020-07-08 | Lost |
| 983 | 954 | 54% | 2020-01-25 | Won |
| 1117 | 1109 | 51% | 2013-11-29 | Won |
| 1175 | 1038 | 69% | 2013-03-24 | Won |
| 1213 | 1059 | 71% | 2013-03-09 | Won |
| 1071 | 1078 | 49% | 2011-06-12 | Won |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2011-04-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 919 | 72% | 2011-02-28 | Won |
| 1020 | 1011 | 51% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1089 | 1014 | 61% | 2010-12-21 | Won |
| 989 | 1063 | 40% | 2010-05-01 | Lost |
| 950 | 1003 | 42% | 2009-12-18 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1340 | 28% | 2009-09-12 | Lost |
| 945 | 1037 | 37% | 2008-11-08 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1052 | 44% | 2008-07-10 | Lost |
| 982 | 994 | 48% | 2007-11-30 | Lost |
| 841 | 1213 | 11% | 2007-10-09 | Won |
| 1003 | 1164 | 28% | 2007-10-01 | Won |
| 1047 | 1117 | 40% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1042.9 vs 1057.6 has a 47.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).