Pavlov's House
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26
Attacker wins (German): 8
Defender wins (Russian): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1069 | 1026 | 56% | 2023-10-10 | Lost |
| 959 | 876 | 62% | 2022-11-30 | Lost |
| 985 | 989 | 49% | 2022-02-22 | Lost |
| 1066 | 953 | 66% | 2020-10-27 | Lost |
| 962 | 1066 | 35% | 2019-11-09 | Won |
| 1008 | 1254 | 20% | 2019-07-17 | Lost |
| 998 | 1054 | 42% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 998 | 1054 | 42% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 875 | 1159 | 16% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
| 1117 | 969 | 70% | 2013-05-11 | Won |
| 1071 | 1155 | 38% | 2013-01-05 | Lost |
| 1102 | 893 | 77% | 2012-05-25 | Won |
| 1131 | 938 | 75% | 2011-08-21 | Lost |
| 1101 | 870 | 79% | 2011-02-03 | Won |
| 1133 | 1233 | 36% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 941 | 56% | 2010-05-08 | Lost |
| 967 | 1117 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Lost |
| 967 | 1117 | 30% | 2010-03-25 | Won |
| 1142 | 1264 | 33% | 2010-01-17 | Lost |
| 1059 | 883 | 73% | 2008-10-10 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2008-06-27 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2008-06-11 | Won |
| 1269 | 1036 | 79% | 2008-05-27 | Tied |
| 938 | 1061 | 33% | 2008-02-23 | Won |
| 1056 | 933 | 67% | 2008-01-18 | Won |
| 1118 | 1036 | 62% | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1048.8 vs 1041.3 has a 51.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).