Second Crack at Caumont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 267 (58 on the archive and 209 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 141
Defender wins (German): 126
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 950 | 55% | 2025-06-07 | Lost |
| 997 | 930 | 60% | 2025-05-15 | Won |
| 1017 | 1174 | 29% | 2025-04-16 | Lost |
| 1245 | 1243 | 50% | 2024-12-29 | Won |
| 937 | 971 | 45% | 2024-10-20 | Lost |
| 1383 | 1434 | 43% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1239 | 28% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 933 | 947 | 48% | 2023-08-21 | Won |
| 1030 | 780 | 81% | 2022-10-20 | Lost |
| 1167 | 1078 | 63% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 939 | 928 | 52% | 2022-06-12 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1038 | 74% | 2021-09-11 | Won |
| 944 | 1107 | 28% | 2021-09-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1092 | 69% | 2021-01-11 | Won |
| 1017 | 910 | 65% | 2020-10-31 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1009 | 60% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1158 | 972 | 74% | 2020-05-06 | Won |
| 1091 | 933 | 71% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1006 | 1076 | 40% | 2020-05-02 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1077 | 45% | 2020-01-17 | Won |
| 978 | 998 | 47% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1239 | 1208 | 54% | 2018-05-13 | Won |
| 1021 | 1029 | 49% | 2018-05-12 | Won |
| 1158 | 972 | 74% | 2018-04-29 | Won |
| 1041 | 1143 | 36% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1143 | 36% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 968 | 942 | 54% | 2018-01-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 918 | 78% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 869 | 1216 | 12% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1079 | 59% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 937 | 1158 | 22% | 2015-07-08 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-09-19 | Won |
| 1046 | 1038 | 51% | 2014-05-16 | Won |
| 1077 | 1115 | 45% | 2013-11-10 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1062 | 58% | 2013-08-15 | Lost |
| 956 | 781 | 73% | 2013-04-14 | Lost |
| 1071 | 970 | 64% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 936 | 1052 | 34% | 2012-06-30 | Won |
| 1077 | 1044 | 55% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1146 | 52% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 1110 | 985 | 67% | 2011-06-24 | Won |
| 1155 | 1233 | 39% | 2011-06-17 | Lost |
| 905 | 1012 | 35% | 2009-12-11 | Lost |
| 999 | 893 | 65% | 2009-10-24 | Won |
| 997 | 968 | 54% | 2009-04-22 | Won |
| 1075 | 1101 | 46% | 2009-04-03 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2009-03-18 | Lost |
| 961 | 1007 | 43% | 2009-02-28 | Won |
| 1038 | 1099 | 41% | 2009-02-12 | Won |
| 1233 | 1015 | 78% | 2009-02-06 | Won |
| 1035 | 982 | 58% | 2009-01-13 | Won |
| 1109 | 1077 | 55% | 2009-01-03 | Won |
| 1137 | 1035 | 64% | 2008-10-28 | Won |
| 1174 | 1060 | 66% | 2008-08-12 | Won |
| 1140 | 753 | 90% | 2008-07-14 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1095 | 53% | | Lost |
| 944 | 1095 | 30% | | Lost |
Attacking (31 wins) average ELOs: 1064.2 vs 1044 has a 52.9% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).