Second Crack at Caumont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 264 (58 on the archive and 206 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 129
Defender wins (German): 135
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 958 | 949 | 51% | 2025-06-07 | Lost |
| 1044 | 931 | 66% | 2025-05-15 | Won |
| 971 | 1177 | 23% | 2025-04-16 | Lost |
| 1242 | 1154 | 62% | 2024-12-29 | Won |
| 937 | 971 | 45% | 2024-10-20 | Lost |
| 1382 | 1416 | 45% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1329 | 15% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 909 | 886 | 53% | 2023-08-21 | Won |
| 1064 | 764 | 85% | 2022-10-20 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1064 | 47% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 956 | 985 | 46% | 2022-06-12 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1037 | 74% | 2021-09-11 | Won |
| 940 | 1005 | 41% | 2021-09-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1091 | 69% | 2021-01-11 | Won |
| 1029 | 900 | 68% | 2020-10-31 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1007 | 63% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1009 | 70% | 2020-05-06 | Won |
| 1091 | 909 | 74% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1007 | 1200 | 25% | 2020-05-02 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1028 | 54% | 2020-01-17 | Won |
| 1025 | 995 | 54% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1329 | 1204 | 67% | 2018-05-13 | Won |
| 1082 | 1029 | 58% | 2018-05-12 | Won |
| 1158 | 1009 | 70% | 2018-04-29 | Won |
| 947 | 1143 | 24% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 947 | 1143 | 24% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 968 | 925 | 56% | 2018-01-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 917 | 79% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 906 | 1219 | 14% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1191 | 43% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1158 | 31% | 2015-07-08 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-09-19 | Won |
| 1052 | 1036 | 52% | 2014-05-16 | Won |
| 1028 | 1090 | 41% | 2013-11-10 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1087 | 53% | 2013-08-15 | Lost |
| 950 | 783 | 72% | 2013-04-14 | Lost |
| 1067 | 960 | 65% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 936 | 1063 | 32% | 2012-06-30 | Won |
| 1028 | 1039 | 48% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1060 | 64% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 1111 | 986 | 67% | 2011-06-24 | Won |
| 1153 | 1228 | 39% | 2011-06-17 | Lost |
| 903 | 1009 | 35% | 2009-12-11 | Lost |
| 918 | 892 | 54% | 2009-10-24 | Won |
| 997 | 968 | 54% | 2009-04-22 | Won |
| 1075 | 1100 | 46% | 2009-04-03 | Won |
| 1096 | 1100 | 49% | 2009-03-18 | Lost |
| 980 | 987 | 49% | 2009-02-28 | Won |
| 1055 | 1106 | 43% | 2009-02-12 | Won |
| 1228 | 1011 | 78% | 2009-02-06 | Won |
| 1034 | 982 | 57% | 2009-01-13 | Won |
| 1127 | 1233 | 35% | 2009-01-03 | Won |
| 1132 | 1034 | 64% | 2008-10-28 | Won |
| 1177 | 983 | 75% | 2008-08-12 | Won |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 2008-07-14 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1090 | 54% | | Lost |
| 998 | 1090 | 37% | | Lost |
Attacking (31 wins) average ELOs: 1062.9 vs 1043.3 has a 52.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).