The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (14 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 42
Defender wins (Polish): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 968 | 953 | 52% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1156 | 1057 | 64% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1051 | 43% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1127 | 47% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1131 | 52% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2015-06-25 | Lost |
| 930 | 986 | 42% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 916 | 1020 | 35% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 800 | 927 | 32% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1007 | 1065 | 42% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1243 | 28% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 998 | 1165 | 28% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 836 | 1028 | 25% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1035 | 1058 | 47% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 997.9 vs 1069.1 has a 39.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).