The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (14 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 42
Defender wins (Polish): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 975 | 962 | 52% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1194 | 1057 | 69% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1174 | 40% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 986 | 1113 | 32% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 1194 | 25% | 2015-06-25 | Lost |
| 931 | 986 | 42% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 992 | 1019 | 46% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 801 | 894 | 37% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1006 | 1100 | 37% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1244 | 30% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1169 | 32% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1188 | 1037 | 70% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1034 | 1059 | 46% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1024.6 vs 1074.1 has a 42.93% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).