The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (15 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 43
Defender wins (Polish): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 962 | 962 | 50% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1204 | 1057 | 70% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1173 | 39% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1283 | 946 | 87% | 2018-02-25 | Won |
| 980 | 1144 | 28% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 1204 | 24% | 2015-06-25 | Lost |
| 932 | 986 | 42% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 959 | 1019 | 41% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 801 | 910 | 35% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1008 | 1117 | 35% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1243 | 31% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1255 | 25% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1188 | 1027 | 72% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1036 | 1022 | 52% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1041.5 vs 1072.6 has a 45.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).