The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (13 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 42
Defender wins (Polish): 53
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 978 | 978 | 50% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1099 | 990 | 65% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1087 | 38% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1138 | 37% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1205 | 25% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 924 | 987 | 41% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 958 | 1018 | 41% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 801 | 944 | 31% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1004 | 1022 | 47% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1232 | 27% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 985 | 1181 | 24% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 880 | 1058 | 26% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1030 | 1006 | 53% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 982.5 vs 1065.1 has a 38.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).