Swatting a Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40 (8 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 9
Defender wins (German): 31
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1044 | 947 | 64% | 2021-07-17 | Won |
| 932 | 1216 | 16% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1260 | 1193 | 60% | 2016-09-17 | Lost |
| 999 | 1310 | 14% | 2013-08-22 | Lost |
| 982 | 963 | 53% | 2013-07-23 | Lost |
| 1184 | 987 | 76% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1167 | 32% | 2011-01-15 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1025 | 51% | 2009-07-31 | Lost |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1058.9 vs 1101 has a 43.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).