Swatting a Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 43 (10 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 26
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1028 | 942 | 62% | 2025-06-09 | Lost |
| 986 | 1013 | 46% | 2021-07-17 | Won |
| 932 | 1219 | 16% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1256 | 51% | 2016-09-17 | Lost |
| 998 | 1333 | 13% | 2013-08-22 | Lost |
| 982 | 963 | 53% | 2013-07-23 | Lost |
| 1142 | 987 | 71% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1162 | 33% | 2011-01-15 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1025 | 54% | 2009-07-31 | Lost |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 2009-06-23 | Lost |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1013.3 vs 1105.2 has a 37.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).