Swatting a Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 43 (10 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 9
Defender wins (German): 34
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 944 | 63% | 2025-06-09 | | Lost |
| 959 | 1174 | 22% | 2021-07-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2019-10-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1258 | 18% | 2016-09-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2013-08-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 963 | 55% | 2013-07-23 | | Lost |
| 1252 | 1000 | 81% | 2011-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1130 | 37% | 2011-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 1034 | 58% | 2009-07-31 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2009-06-23 | | Lost |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1014.5 vs 1108.1 has a 36.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).