Prelim to Death Night
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (14 on the archive and 48 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 29
Defender wins (American): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1073 | 1131 | 42% | 2024-09-06 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1092 | 58% | 2024-05-01 | | Lost |
| 971 | 1000 | 46% | 2021-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1078 | 69% | 2021-10-02 | | Won |
| 952 | 1147 | 25% | 2021-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1018 | 76% | 2020-03-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1183 | 26% | 2020-03-07 | | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2020-01-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2019-11-13 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2019-11-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 963 | 55% | 2013-07-10 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 870 | 79% | 2012-11-04 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1020 | 49% | 2011-10-06 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2010-06-22 | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1037.3 vs 1050.5 has a 48.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).