Prelim to Death Night
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 14
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 6
Defender wins (American): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 992 | 1038 | 43% | 2024-09-06 | Won |
| 1077 | 1073 | 51% | 2024-05-01 | Lost |
| 971 | 945 | 54% | 2021-10-11 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1077 | 70% | 2021-10-02 | Won |
| 986 | 1123 | 31% | 2021-08-01 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1017 | 76% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1140 | 1107 | 55% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-01-29 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1143 | 38% | 2019-11-13 | Won |
| 1143 | 1059 | 62% | 2019-11-12 | Lost |
| 972 | 963 | 51% | 2013-07-10 | Lost |
| 1101 | 870 | 79% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1046 | 1039 | 51% | 2011-10-06 | Lost |
| 753 | 1140 | 10% | 2010-06-22 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1047.5 vs 1044.6 has a 50.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).