Prelim to Death Night
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 13
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 6
Defender wins (American): 7
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1018 | 948 | 60% | 2024-09-06 | Won |
| 1055 | 1100 | 44% | 2024-05-01 | Lost |
| 917 | 945 | 46% | 2021-10-11 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1043 | 82% | 2021-10-02 | Won |
| 1050 | 1140 | 37% | 2021-08-01 | Lost |
| 1216 | 982 | 79% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1102 | 1056 | 57% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 981 | 1030 | 43% | 2020-01-29 | Lost |
| 948 | 1200 | 19% | 2019-11-13 | Won |
| 1200 | 948 | 81% | 2019-11-12 | Lost |
| 971 | 963 | 51% | 2013-07-10 | Lost |
| 1098 | 870 | 79% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1087 | 1091 | 49% | 2011-10-06 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1073.3 vs 1024.3 has a 57.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).