The Nutcracker
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (13 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 42
Defender wins (German): 27
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2017-01-07 | | Lost |
| 1065 | 1135 | 40% | 2015-10-04 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2014-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2013-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1065 | 41% | 2011-12-03 | | Lost |
| 1129 | 1039 | 63% | 2011-11-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2011-10-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2011-09-29 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2011-09-25 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2011-07-05 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1022 | 76% | 2011-05-15 | | Lost |
| 965 | 1214 | 19% | 2011-04-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2011-02-27 | | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1054.5 vs 1079.5 has a 46.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).