Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 180 (49 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 75
Defender wins (German): 101
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1110 | 1142 | 45% | 2025-04-06 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1031 | 46% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1011 | 56% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 989 | 1001 | 48% | 2024-02-07 | Lost |
| 928 | 1015 | 38% | 2024-01-05 | Lost |
| 898 | 940 | 44% | 2023-08-09 | Lost |
| 1079 | 944 | 69% | 2023-01-12 | Won |
| 963 | 1036 | 40% | 2022-10-08 | Won |
| 1011 | 976 | 55% | 2021-03-19 | Lost |
| 940 | 1031 | 37% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1032 | 61% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1027 | 49% | 2020-04-01 | Won |
| 1031 | 982 | 57% | 2020-03-16 | Lost |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2019-12-14 | Lost |
| 945 | 1344 | 9% | 2019-06-21 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1047 | 50% | 2018-09-15 | Won |
| 979 | 951 | 54% | 2018-08-10 | Won |
| 1133 | 1042 | 63% | 2018-06-21 | Tied |
| 1092 | 1060 | 55% | 2018-05-25 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1182 | 29% | 2018-05-19 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1156 | 54% | 2018-05-02 | Won |
| 969 | 1123 | 29% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1051 | 969 | 62% | 2017-09-30 | Won |
| 1024 | 1020 | 51% | 2017-09-24 | Won |
| 1227 | 1171 | 58% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1202 | 1126 | 61% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1035 | 61% | 2015-09-09 | Lost |
| 913 | 927 | 48% | 2015-02-18 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1114 | 42% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1127 | 40% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1187 | 998 | 75% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
| 1084 | 1026 | 58% | 2013-05-18 | Won |
| 1187 | 1146 | 56% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1178 | 35% | 2013-04-04 | Won |
| 1059 | 997 | 59% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1025 | 47% | 2013-02-09 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1084 | 45% | 2013-02-08 | Tied |
| 1227 | 1023 | 76% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
| 965 | 994 | 46% | 2012-06-18 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1108 | 52% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1202 | 1167 | 55% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 1435 | 994 | 93% | 2012-01-23 | Tied |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2012-01-16 | Lost |
| 1070 | 963 | 65% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1191 | 54% | 2012-01-11 | Won |
| 1060 | 1176 | 34% | 2011-11-13 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1119 | 59% | 2011-06-16 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1069.6 vs 1059.3 has a 51.48% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).