Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 179 (48 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 75
Defender wins (German): 100
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1110 | 1142 | 45% | 2025-04-06 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1042 | 47% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 1063 | 975 | 62% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 989 | 999 | 49% | 2024-02-07 | Lost |
| 919 | 1015 | 37% | 2024-01-05 | Lost |
| 898 | 941 | 44% | 2023-08-09 | Lost |
| 1176 | 963 | 77% | 2023-01-12 | Won |
| 963 | 995 | 45% | 2022-10-08 | Won |
| 975 | 1000 | 46% | 2021-03-19 | Lost |
| 941 | 1042 | 36% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1032 | 61% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1027 | 58% | 2020-04-01 | Won |
| 1031 | 982 | 57% | 2020-03-16 | Lost |
| 900 | 1108 | 23% | 2019-12-14 | Lost |
| 946 | 1344 | 9% | 2019-06-21 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1093 | 43% | 2018-09-15 | Won |
| 979 | 1008 | 46% | 2018-08-10 | Won |
| 1133 | 1072 | 59% | 2018-06-21 | Tied |
| 1096 | 1031 | 59% | 2018-05-25 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1213 | 26% | 2018-05-19 | Lost |
| 1213 | 900 | 86% | 2018-05-02 | Won |
| 970 | 1113 | 31% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1015 | 56% | 2017-09-30 | Won |
| 1024 | 1081 | 42% | 2017-09-24 | Won |
| 1203 | 1175 | 54% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1110 | 62% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1036 | 61% | 2015-09-09 | Lost |
| 913 | 927 | 48% | 2015-02-18 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1111 | 42% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1123 | 40% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1190 | 998 | 75% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
| 983 | 1025 | 44% | 2013-05-18 | Won |
| 1048 | 1117 | 40% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
| 1071 | 1178 | 35% | 2013-04-04 | Won |
| 1059 | 997 | 59% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1131 | 52% | 2013-02-08 | Tied |
| 1203 | 1023 | 74% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
| 912 | 995 | 38% | 2012-06-18 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1108 | 52% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1192 | 1073 | 66% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 1424 | 993 | 92% | 2012-01-23 | Tied |
| 980 | 1073 | 37% | 2012-01-16 | Lost |
| 1059 | 962 | 64% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
| 1252 | 1190 | 59% | 2012-01-11 | Won |
| 1049 | 1238 | 25% | 2011-11-13 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1173 | 49% | 2011-06-16 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1064.9 vs 1061.1 has a 50.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).