Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 178 (47 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 75
Defender wins (German): 99
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1110 | 1142 | 45% | 2025-04-06 | Lost |
| 992 | 1128 | 31% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 970 | 927 | 56% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1061 | 43% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 978 | 1011 | 45% | 2024-02-07 | Lost |
| 913 | 1010 | 36% | 2024-01-05 | Lost |
| 898 | 847 | 57% | 2023-08-09 | Lost |
| 1241 | 963 | 83% | 2023-01-12 | Won |
| 961 | 1055 | 37% | 2022-10-08 | Won |
| 1061 | 970 | 63% | 2021-03-19 | Lost |
| 847 | 1128 | 17% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1032 | 59% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1027 | 58% | 2020-04-01 | Won |
| 1031 | 982 | 57% | 2020-03-16 | Lost |
| 1017 | 973 | 56% | 2019-12-14 | Lost |
| 1044 | 950 | 63% | 2018-09-15 | Won |
| 979 | 906 | 60% | 2018-08-10 | Won |
| 1132 | 1086 | 57% | 2018-06-21 | Tied |
| 1097 | 1041 | 58% | 2018-05-25 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1266 | 20% | 2018-05-19 | Lost |
| 1266 | 1017 | 81% | 2018-05-02 | Won |
| 967 | 1157 | 25% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1009 | 58% | 2017-09-30 | Won |
| 1024 | 1084 | 41% | 2017-09-24 | Won |
| 1264 | 1169 | 63% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1150 | 54% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1029 | 60% | 2015-09-09 | Lost |
| 913 | 927 | 48% | 2015-02-18 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1110 | 42% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1121 | 40% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1141 | 998 | 69% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
| 1080 | 1023 | 58% | 2013-05-18 | Won |
| 1024 | 1058 | 45% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1173 | 35% | 2013-04-04 | Won |
| 1058 | 985 | 60% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
| 977 | 1132 | 29% | 2013-02-08 | Tied |
| 1264 | 1029 | 79% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
| 1007 | 999 | 51% | 2012-06-18 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1108 | 52% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1175 | 1073 | 64% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 1412 | 992 | 92% | 2012-01-23 | Tied |
| 1076 | 1073 | 50% | 2012-01-16 | Lost |
| 1125 | 966 | 71% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1190 | 67% | 2012-01-11 | Won |
| 1003 | 1170 | 28% | 2011-11-13 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1122 | 53% | 2011-06-16 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1072.9 vs 1051.5 has a 53.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).