Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 161 (42 on the archive and 119 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 70
Defender wins (German): 87
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
929 | 929 | 50% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
1058 | 1025 | 55% | 2024-02-07 | Lost |
948 | 961 | 48% | 2023-08-09 | Lost |
971 | 1012 | 44% | 2022-10-08 | Won |
929 | 1171 | 20% | 2021-03-19 | Lost |
961 | 1076 | 34% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
1115 | 1010 | 65% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
1028 | 1027 | 50% | 2020-04-01 | Won |
1029 | 980 | 57% | 2020-03-16 | Lost |
1010 | 1027 | 48% | 2019-12-14 | Lost |
1046 | 1000 | 57% | 2018-09-15 | Won |
979 | 1013 | 45% | 2018-08-10 | Won |
1131 | 1037 | 63% | 2018-06-21 | Tied |
1103 | 1063 | 56% | 2018-05-25 | Lost |
1013 | 1160 | 30% | 2018-05-19 | Lost |
1160 | 1010 | 70% | 2018-05-02 | Won |
985 | 1204 | 22% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
1028 | 1026 | 50% | 2017-09-30 | Won |
1024 | 1028 | 49% | 2017-09-24 | Won |
1327 | 1157 | 73% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
1141 | 1095 | 57% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
1100 | 1030 | 60% | 2015-09-09 | Lost |
921 | 921 | 50% | 2015-02-18 | Lost |
1067 | 1181 | 34% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
1067 | 1112 | 44% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
1176 | 1001 | 73% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
1063 | 989 | 60% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
1087 | 1021 | 59% | 2013-05-18 | Won |
1068 | 1172 | 35% | 2013-04-04 | Won |
1050 | 986 | 59% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
1204 | 1144 | 59% | 2013-02-08 | Tied |
1327 | 1029 | 85% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
977 | 1028 | 43% | 2012-06-18 | Lost |
1125 | 1108 | 52% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
1141 | 1062 | 61% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
1360 | 992 | 89% | 2012-01-23 | Tied |
1127 | 1062 | 59% | 2012-01-16 | Lost |
1108 | 962 | 70% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
1307 | 1190 | 66% | 2012-01-11 | Won |
904 | 925 | 47% | 2011-11-13 | Lost |
1172 | 1142 | 54% | 2011-06-16 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1079.7 vs 1050.4 has a 54.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).