Hell for the Holidays
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 102 (27 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 40
Defender wins (American): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1007 | 1126 | 34% | 2025-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1258 | 989 | 82% | 2025-05-13 | | Won |
| 1258 | 989 | 82% | 2025-05-13 | | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2024-12-20 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-12-01 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2023-08-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 902 | 64% | 2022-12-18 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2021-12-30 | | Lost |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2020-09-06 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1127 | 63% | 2020-06-10 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1159 | 58% | 2020-06-10 | | Won |
| 1105 | 1085 | 53% | 2020-01-12 | | Lost |
| 892 | 1000 | 35% | 2019-06-19 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2019-01-19 | | Lost |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2018-12-16 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2014-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2013-06-21 | | Won |
| 1129 | 1037 | 63% | 2013-06-14 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2013-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1036 | 1019 | 52% | 2012-05-05 | | Won |
| 1145 | 1147 | 50% | 2012-03-31 | | Lost |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1214 | 26% | 2012-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1087 | 1090 | 50% | 2012-01-12 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2012-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2012-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1018 | 60% | | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1065.5 vs 1042.3 has a 53.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).