Hell for the Holidays
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 102 (27 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 40
Defender wins (American): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1045 | 1115 | 40% | 2025-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1289 | 974 | 86% | 2025-05-13 | | Won |
| 1289 | 974 | 86% | 2025-05-13 | | Won |
| 932 | 843 | 63% | 2024-12-20 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-12-01 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2023-08-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 902 | 64% | 2022-12-18 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-12-30 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2020-09-06 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1091 | 68% | 2020-06-10 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1150 | 60% | 2020-06-10 | | Won |
| 1104 | 1134 | 46% | 2020-01-12 | | Lost |
| 892 | 1000 | 35% | 2019-06-19 | | Lost |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2019-01-19 | | Lost |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2018-12-16 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2014-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2013-06-21 | | Won |
| 1129 | 991 | 69% | 2013-06-14 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2013-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1036 | 1019 | 52% | 2012-05-05 | | Won |
| 1145 | 1133 | 52% | 2012-03-31 | | Lost |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1153 | 34% | 2012-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1087 | 1062 | 54% | 2012-01-12 | | Won |
| 904 | 1000 | 37% | 2012-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2012-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1018 | 60% | | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1066.6 vs 1033.8 has a 54.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).