Hell for the Holidays
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 27
Attacker wins (German): 11
Defender wins (American): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 963 | 1023 | 41% | 2025-10-24 | Lost |
| 1236 | 986 | 81% | 2025-05-13 | Won |
| 1236 | 986 | 81% | 2025-05-13 | Won |
| 954 | 843 | 65% | 2024-12-20 | Won |
| 1035 | 1001 | 55% | 2024-12-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2023-08-27 | Won |
| 913 | 926 | 48% | 2022-12-18 | Won |
| 1029 | 1001 | 54% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1043 | 50% | 2020-09-06 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1170 | 57% | 2020-06-10 | Won |
| 1217 | 1159 | 58% | 2020-06-10 | Won |
| 1105 | 1083 | 53% | 2020-01-12 | Lost |
| 879 | 1023 | 30% | 2019-06-19 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1046 | 44% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2018-12-16 | Lost |
| 1056 | 993 | 59% | 2014-03-28 | Lost |
| 1048 | 969 | 61% | 2013-06-21 | Won |
| 1149 | 998 | 70% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1143 | 45% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2012-05-05 | Won |
| 1129 | 1129 | 50% | 2012-03-31 | Lost |
| 985 | 917 | 60% | 2012-03-24 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1241 | 26% | 2012-02-07 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1040 | 57% | 2012-01-12 | Won |
| 884 | 766 | 66% | 2012-01-12 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1342 | 20% | 2012-01-12 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1017 | 53% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1058.2 vs 1034.6 has a 53.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).