A Frosty Morning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (26 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German / Italian): 50
Defender wins (British): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1087 | 972 | 66% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 1090 | 938 | 71% | 2025-04-12 | Won |
| 891 | 877 | 52% | 2025-01-22 | Won |
| 1063 | 1105 | 44% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 1200 | 1179 | 53% | 2024-11-19 | Won |
| 1100 | 1100 | 50% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2024-02-28 | Won |
| 1415 | 1179 | 80% | 2023-06-10 | Won |
| 1071 | 1035 | 55% | 2021-03-08 | Won |
| 916 | 890 | 54% | 2021-03-01 | Won |
| 1044 | 1048 | 49% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 951 | 1028 | 39% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1057 | 982 | 61% | 2020-09-01 | Lost |
| 1003 | 950 | 58% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1285 | 1127 | 71% | 2019-03-30 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
| 973 | 1163 | 25% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1168 | 1152 | 52% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1163 | 974 | 75% | 2015-10-30 | Won |
| 1105 | 1127 | 47% | 2014-04-05 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1098 | 42% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1167 | 1328 | 28% | 2013-10-28 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1099 | 53% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1415 | 1112 | 85% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1067 | 1099 | 45% | 2013-04-08 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2013-02-22 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1101.3 vs 1072.7 has a 54.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).