A Frosty Morning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 84 (28 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German / Italian): 52
Defender wins (British): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1143 | 1149 | 49% | 2025-06-20 | | Won |
| 1086 | 938 | 70% | 2025-04-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 850 | 70% | 2025-01-22 | | Won |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2024-12-15 | | Won |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 2024-11-19 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1046 | 53% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2024-02-28 | | Won |
| 1435 | 1000 | 92% | 2023-06-10 | | Won |
| 1068 | 1035 | 55% | 2021-03-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2021-03-01 | | Won |
| 963 | 1000 | 45% | 2021-02-19 | | Won |
| 952 | 1080 | 32% | 2020-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 983 | 61% | 2020-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1002 | 940 | 59% | 2020-01-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2019-03-30 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-12-17 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1091 | 70% | 2017-10-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2015-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2015-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 957 | 74% | 2015-10-30 | | Won |
| 1077 | 1167 | 37% | 2014-04-05 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1064 | 47% | 2014-03-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2014-01-13 | | Won |
| 1176 | 1219 | 44% | 2013-10-28 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1099 | 54% | 2013-06-15 | | Won |
| 1435 | 1150 | 84% | 2013-06-15 | | Won |
| 1071 | 1099 | 46% | 2013-04-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2013-02-22 | | Won |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1083.7 vs 1056.9 has a 53.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).