A Frosty Morning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 83 (27 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German / Italian): 51
Defender wins (British): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1144 | 900 | 80% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 1018 | 930 | 62% | 2025-04-12 | Won |
| 891 | 869 | 53% | 2025-01-22 | Won |
| 1042 | 1086 | 44% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 1176 | 1023 | 71% | 2024-11-19 | Won |
| 1059 | 1060 | 50% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2024-02-28 | Won |
| 1424 | 1023 | 91% | 2023-06-10 | Won |
| 1071 | 1035 | 55% | 2021-03-08 | Won |
| 916 | 941 | 46% | 2021-03-01 | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 951 | 1031 | 39% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1059 | 982 | 61% | 2020-09-01 | Lost |
| 1002 | 912 | 63% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1284 | 1113 | 73% | 2019-03-30 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1077 | 75% | 2017-10-30 | Won |
| 972 | 1110 | 31% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1140 | 56% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1110 | 952 | 71% | 2015-10-30 | Won |
| 1097 | 1173 | 39% | 2014-04-05 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1072 | 46% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1176 | 1252 | 39% | 2013-10-28 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1098 | 54% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1424 | 1119 | 85% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1071 | 1098 | 46% | 2013-04-08 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2013-02-22 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1101.4 vs 1048.5 has a 57.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).