A Frosty Morning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (German / Italian): 16
Defender wins (British): 8
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 938 | 74% | 2025-04-12 | Won |
| 891 | 879 | 52% | 2025-01-22 | Won |
| 1082 | 1057 | 54% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 1223 | 1210 | 52% | 2024-11-19 | Won |
| 1091 | 1093 | 50% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2024-02-28 | Won |
| 1407 | 1210 | 76% | 2023-06-10 | Won |
| 1054 | 1035 | 53% | 2021-03-08 | Won |
| 916 | 872 | 56% | 2021-03-01 | Won |
| 947 | 927 | 53% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 952 | 1014 | 41% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1058 | 982 | 61% | 2020-09-01 | Lost |
| 975 | 966 | 51% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1280 | 1157 | 67% | 2019-03-30 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
| 973 | 1147 | 27% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1147 | 994 | 71% | 2015-10-30 | Won |
| 1081 | 1133 | 43% | 2014-04-05 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1086 | 44% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1111 | 1316 | 24% | 2013-10-28 | Lost |
| 1407 | 1113 | 84% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1126 | 1099 | 54% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1066 | 1099 | 45% | 2013-04-08 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1223 | 38% | 2013-02-22 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1091.2 vs 1068.9 has a 53.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).