Totsugeki!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 362 (30 on the archive and 332 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 203
Defender wins (Chinese): 158
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 837 | 72% | 2026-01-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2026-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2025-11-03 | | Lost |
| 1311 | 994 | 86% | 2025-10-26 | | Lost |
| 994 | 1311 | 14% | 2025-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1205 | 1012 | 75% | 2025-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2023-04-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1023 | 47% | 2023-03-19 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2022-05-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2022-05-22 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2020-08-27 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2020-08-26 | | Lost |
| 980 | 970 | 51% | 2020-08-22 | | Lost |
| 949 | 1084 | 31% | 2020-08-18 | | Won |
| 1078 | 1040 | 55% | 2020-08-16 | | Lost |
| 939 | 1122 | 26% | 2020-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1187 | 47% | 2020-07-31 | | Won |
| 1132 | 1178 | 43% | 2020-05-24 | | Won |
| 886 | 1000 | 34% | 2019-07-16 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1187 | 25% | 2019-03-15 | | Won |
| 1222 | 1000 | 78% | 2018-06-16 | | Won |
| 1158 | 1000 | 71% | 2017-11-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 886 | 66% | 2017-02-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 986 | 52% | 2016-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 908 | 65% | 2016-04-10 | | Lost |
| 929 | 1000 | 40% | 2016-02-01 | | Won |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2015-02-03 | | Lost |
| 999 | 973 | 54% | 2014-06-29 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2014-03-08 | | Won |
| 1146 | 1081 | 59% | 2013-12-01 | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1035.9 vs 1025.3 has a 51.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).