The Crown of Thorn
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 41 (12 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 18
Defender wins (German): 22
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2024-11-22 | Won |
| 1017 | 973 | 56% | 2024-08-22 | Lost |
| 988 | 1043 | 42% | 2023-10-05 | Won |
| 1038 | 1128 | 37% | 2021-02-17 | Won |
| 993 | 873 | 67% | 2016-04-03 | Won |
| 1009 | 1094 | 38% | 2015-10-24 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1098 | 51% | 2014-04-12 | Won |
| 1039 | 998 | 56% | 2014-04-12 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1290 | 19% | 2014-04-07 | Lost |
| 888 | 1125 | 20% | 2014-02-12 | Won |
| 1189 | 748 | 93% | 2013-12-01 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1098 | 54% | 2013-10-07 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1031.7 vs 1046 has a 47.94% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).