The Crown of Thorn
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42 (13 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 18
Defender wins (German): 23
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1091 | 959 | 68% | 2024-11-22 | Won |
| 922 | 1083 | 28% | 2024-08-22 | Lost |
| 949 | 1055 | 35% | 2023-10-05 | Won |
| 1057 | 1041 | 52% | 2021-02-17 | Won |
| 726 | 1140 | 8% | 2020-01-29 | Lost |
| 878 | 872 | 51% | 2016-04-03 | Won |
| 1010 | 1108 | 36% | 2015-10-24 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1101 | 51% | 2014-04-12 | Won |
| 1039 | 998 | 56% | 2014-04-12 | Lost |
| 1039 | 878 | 72% | 2014-04-07 | Lost |
| 891 | 1126 | 21% | 2014-02-12 | Won |
| 1225 | 979 | 80% | 2013-12-01 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1101 | 61% | 2013-10-07 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1008.9 vs 1033.9 has a 46.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).