The Crown of Thorn
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42 (13 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 18
Defender wins (German): 23
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 988 | 1066 | 39% | 2024-11-22 | Won |
| 972 | 1014 | 44% | 2024-08-22 | Lost |
| 987 | 1039 | 43% | 2023-10-05 | Won |
| 1057 | 1064 | 49% | 2021-02-17 | Won |
| 712 | 1152 | 7% | 2020-01-29 | Lost |
| 950 | 871 | 61% | 2016-04-03 | Won |
| 1009 | 1096 | 38% | 2015-10-24 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1100 | 51% | 2014-04-12 | Won |
| 1040 | 998 | 56% | 2014-04-12 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1290 | 19% | 2014-04-07 | Lost |
| 890 | 1125 | 21% | 2014-02-12 | Won |
| 1177 | 972 | 76% | 2013-12-01 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1100 | 61% | 2013-10-07 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1008.1 vs 1068.2 has a 41.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).