The Crown of Thorn
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 44 (15 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 19
Defender wins (German): 25
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2026-06-13 | | Won |
| 987 | 1195 | 23% | 2026-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1182 | 26% | 2026-06-12 | | Lost |
| 994 | 1050 | 42% | 2024-11-22 | D | Won |
| 1142 | 991 | 70% | 2024-08-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2023-10-05 | | Won |
| 1057 | 1023 | 55% | 2021-02-17 | | Won |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2020-01-29 | | Lost |
| 954 | 1000 | 43% | 2016-04-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2015-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2014-04-12 | | Won |
| 1039 | 998 | 56% | 2014-04-12 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2014-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2014-02-12 | | Won |
| 1182 | 1101 | 61% | 2013-10-07 | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1025.3 vs 1071.5 has a 43.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).