The Island
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (17 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 21
Defender wins (German (SS)): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 970 | 1077 | 35% | 2024-12-22 | Won |
| 980 | 1194 | 23% | 2021-04-09 | Lost |
| 1006 | 926 | 61% | 2021-04-06 | Tied |
| 1163 | 1044 | 66% | 2020-11-12 | Won |
| 1012 | 1028 | 48% | 2020-10-05 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-05-30 | Won |
| 1028 | 1077 | 43% | 2018-12-01 | Won |
| 1028 | 1077 | 43% | 2018-11-25 | Won |
| 1028 | 1077 | 43% | 2018-10-30 | Tied |
| 1077 | 879 | 76% | 2018-10-23 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | Lost |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1173 | 50% | 2016-08-16 | Won |
| 999 | 1226 | 21% | 2015-06-28 | Won |
| 1419 | 943 | 94% | 2015-03-07 | Won |
| 1220 | 1184 | 55% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
| 1053 | 1037 | 52% | 2015-01-02 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1053.6 vs 1056.6 has a 49.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).