The Island
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28 (16 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 21
Defender wins (German (SS)): 5
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 990 | 764 | 79% | 2024-12-22 | Won |
| 1006 | 926 | 61% | 2021-04-06 | Tied |
| 1163 | 1044 | 66% | 2020-11-12 | Won |
| 995 | 1022 | 46% | 2020-10-05 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-05-30 | Won |
| 1022 | 764 | 82% | 2018-12-01 | Won |
| 1022 | 764 | 82% | 2018-11-25 | Won |
| 1022 | 764 | 82% | 2018-10-30 | Tied |
| 764 | 879 | 34% | 2018-10-23 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | Lost |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2016-08-16 | Won |
| 999 | 1226 | 21% | 2015-06-28 | Won |
| 1413 | 942 | 94% | 2015-03-07 | Won |
| 1220 | 1184 | 55% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
| 1046 | 1037 | 51% | 2015-01-02 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1033.1 vs 965.7 has a 59.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).