Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 124 (28 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 63
Defender wins (German): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1042 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 856 | 918 | 41% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1241 | 1100 | 69% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1162 | 1100 | 59% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1264 | 1016 | 81% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1016 | 1264 | 19% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1128 | 36% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1009 | 67% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1042 | 45% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 993 | 1058 | 41% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 993 | 1030 | 45% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1141 | 33% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 966 | 1141 | 27% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 910 | 1080 | 27% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1028 | 54% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1071 | 62% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 967 | 1157 | 25% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 929 | 1037 | 35% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1122 | 1106 | 52% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 999 | 1241 | 20% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1141 | 1117 | 53% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 1005 | 1041 | 45% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1199 | 1199 | 50% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1026 | 55% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1170 | 1118 | 57% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1095 | 1310 | 22% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1141 | 33% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1189 | 1141 | 57% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1062.2 vs 1100.1 has a 44.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).