Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 126 (30 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 65
Defender wins (German): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 1038 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 870 | 918 | 43% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1163 | 1099 | 59% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1189 | 1099 | 63% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1268 | 1016 | 81% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1016 | 1268 | 19% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1064 | 45% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1025 | 65% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1029 | 49% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 998 | 1060 | 41% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 998 | 1030 | 45% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1048 | 764 | 84% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 965 | 1163 | 24% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 961 | 1052 | 37% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1028 | 51% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1118 | 51% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 1127 | 29% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 977 | 1037 | 41% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1115 | 1110 | 51% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 999 | 1189 | 25% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1163 | 1122 | 56% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 1004 | 1036 | 45% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1181 | 1181 | 50% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1028 | 55% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1181 | 1118 | 59% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1096 | 1329 | 21% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1053 | 64% | 2016-02-26 | Won |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 2016-01-20 | Won |
| 1021 | 1154 | 32% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1069.7 vs 1057.7 has a 51.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).