Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 127 (31 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 65
Defender wins (German): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 944 | 1023 | 39% | 2025-12-13 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1038 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 941 | 918 | 53% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1190 | 1090 | 64% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1177 | 1090 | 62% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1221 | 1010 | 77% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1010 | 1221 | 23% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1109 | 37% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1003 | 68% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1030 | 46% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 903 | 1099 | 24% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 903 | 1031 | 32% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1011 | 985 | 54% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 981 | 1090 | 35% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 930 | 1029 | 36% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1028 | 51% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1118 | 56% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 971 | 1158 | 25% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 962 | 1037 | 39% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1174 | 1103 | 60% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 988 | 1177 | 25% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1090 | 1123 | 45% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 1018 | 1037 | 47% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1138 | 47% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1020 | 61% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1192 | 1118 | 60% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1096 | 1274 | 26% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1053 | 62% | 2016-02-26 | Won |
| 1138 | 731 | 91% | 2016-01-20 | Won |
| 1021 | 1174 | 29% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1186 | 985 | 76% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1057.7 vs 1065.8 has a 48.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).