Red Churchills
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (20 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 29
Defender wins (Finnish): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1181 | 26% | 2026-04-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2025-11-08 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2025-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1111 | 1126 | 48% | 2025-07-08 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1111 | 41% | 2024-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1140 | 780 | 89% | 2024-08-14 | | Won |
| 1070 | 1051 | 53% | 2024-03-27 | | Lost |
| 1228 | 1000 | 79% | 2024-03-04 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2024-03-02 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1031 | 50% | 2021-10-09 | | Won |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2021-04-18 | | Won |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2021-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 928 | 60% | 2020-03-21 | | Won |
| 1127 | 959 | 72% | 2018-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1205 | 1000 | 76% | 2017-09-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1146 | 30% | 2016-09-17 | | Lost |
| 1070 | 1088 | 47% | 2016-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2016-07-02 | | Lost |
| 1065 | 1141 | 39% | 2016-02-25 | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1036.5 vs 1057.6 has a 46.96% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).