Red Churchills
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 71 (18 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (Finnish): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1121 | 1100 | 53% | 2025-11-08 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1100 | 49% | 2025-07-08 | Won |
| 1013 | 1095 | 38% | 2024-09-30 | Lost |
| 1153 | 763 | 90% | 2024-08-14 | Won |
| 1063 | 1068 | 49% | 2024-03-27 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-03-04 | Won |
| 941 | 873 | 60% | 2024-03-02 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2021-10-09 | Won |
| 986 | 1201 | 22% | 2021-04-25 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2021-04-18 | Won |
| 1013 | 1084 | 40% | 2021-03-01 | Lost |
| 866 | 917 | 43% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1117 | 968 | 70% | 2018-05-01 | Lost |
| 1205 | 805 | 91% | 2017-09-04 | Won |
| 978 | 1055 | 39% | 2016-09-17 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1058 | 49% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1002 | 55% | 2016-07-02 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1152 | 39% | 2016-02-25 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1062.4 vs 1036.1 has a 53.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).