Old Friends
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 102 (27 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 43
Defender wins (German): 58
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 944 | 944 | 50% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1061 | 47% | 2024-03-08 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1116 | 58% | 2021-09-01 | Lost |
| 928 | 947 | 47% | 2021-05-31 | Won |
| 866 | 937 | 40% | 2020-08-11 | Lost |
| 947 | 1223 | 17% | 2019-08-22 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1063 | 50% | 2019-03-23 | Won |
| 1084 | 1063 | 53% | 2018-12-20 | Tied |
| 1066 | 846 | 78% | 2018-08-20 | Won |
| 1025 | 959 | 59% | 2018-03-17 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1032 | 66% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 1316 | 1062 | 81% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 947 | 1086 | 31% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 1224 | 924 | 85% | 2017-02-19 | Won |
| 1223 | 1171 | 57% | 2016-12-29 | Won |
| 1223 | 1136 | 62% | 2016-12-09 | Lost |
| 1147 | 994 | 71% | 2016-09-19 | Won |
| 1223 | 1088 | 69% | 2016-09-01 | Lost |
| 938 | 1219 | 17% | 2016-08-30 | Lost |
| 1219 | 869 | 88% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1099 | 1012 | 62% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1110 | 1043 | 60% | 2016-06-03 | Won |
| 1058 | 1026 | 55% | 2016-05-03 | Lost |
| 1121 | 898 | 78% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1005 | 58% | 2016-04-28 | Lost |
| 895 | 966 | 40% | 2016-04-07 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1141 | 36% | 2014-01-20 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1078.6 vs 1030.8 has a 56.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).