Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 112 (44 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 51
Defender wins (Polish): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 956 | 951 | 51% | 2024-12-31 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1075 | 48% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1102 | 37% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1040 | 938 | 64% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 923 | 1035 | 34% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1098 | 1098 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 974 | 951 | 53% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1256 | 1037 | 78% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 997 | 1064 | 40% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1196 | 989 | 77% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1089 | 951 | 69% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1169 | 889 | 83% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1015 | 49% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 1037 | 43% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 951 | 885 | 59% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 913 | 1141 | 21% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1030 | 59% | 2022-07-12 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1099 | 60% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1014 | 61% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1055 | 1139 | 38% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 993 | 1219 | 21% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 864 | 927 | 41% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 980 | 919 | 59% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1019 | 50% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1018 | 50% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1219 | 1030 | 75% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1028 | 1120 | 37% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 925 | 951 | 46% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 917 | 963 | 43% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1074 | 54% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 951 | 999 | 43% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 903 | 990 | 38% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 990 | 72% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
| 1333 | 948 | 90% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 917 | 1028 | 35% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 988 | 1050 | 41% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1109 | 62% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1196 | 1192 | 51% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 938 | 1256 | 14% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1137 | 63% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1104 | 48% | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1040 vs 1037.9 has a 50.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).