Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 115 (46 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 52
Defender wins (Polish): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1087 | 942 | 70% | 2026-01-10 | Lost |
| 993 | 1019 | 46% | 2025-12-02 | Won |
| 953 | 950 | 50% | 2024-12-31 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1082 | 68% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1072 | 48% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1012 | 970 | 56% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 923 | 991 | 40% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 973 | 950 | 53% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1221 | 1010 | 77% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 996 | 1064 | 40% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1192 | 989 | 76% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1080 | 951 | 68% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1176 | 879 | 85% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1032 | 47% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 1010 | 47% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 950 | 883 | 60% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 914 | 1174 | 18% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1020 | 56% | 2022-07-12 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1090 | 61% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1203 | 33% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1050 | 1177 | 32% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 992 | 1216 | 22% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 864 | 903 | 44% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 980 | 919 | 59% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1020 | 51% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1028 | 49% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1216 | 1020 | 76% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1037 | 1120 | 38% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 942 | 950 | 49% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 917 | 1023 | 35% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1104 | 1075 | 54% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 950 | 999 | 43% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 903 | 955 | 43% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1158 | 955 | 76% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 731 | 1138 | 9% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
| 1274 | 949 | 87% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 917 | 1037 | 33% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 988 | 1086 | 36% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 985 | 1125 | 31% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1187 | 985 | 76% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 938 | 1221 | 16% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1083 | 52% | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1035.7 vs 1032 has a 50.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).