Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 112 (44 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 51
Defender wins (Polish): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 956 | 909 | 57% | 2024-12-31 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1044 | 52% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1098 | 39% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1039 | 932 | 65% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 921 | 1044 | 33% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1083 | 1083 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 975 | 909 | 59% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1220 | 1016 | 76% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 1016 | 1064 | 43% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1181 | 982 | 76% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1044 | 951 | 63% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1142 | 873 | 82% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1033 | 47% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 1016 | 46% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 909 | 885 | 53% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 913 | 1146 | 21% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1029 | 60% | 2022-07-12 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1099 | 60% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1014 | 54% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1066 | 1167 | 36% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 993 | 1219 | 21% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 864 | 998 | 32% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 981 | 920 | 59% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1020 | 53% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1040 | 47% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1219 | 1029 | 75% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1036 | 1120 | 38% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 925 | 909 | 52% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1000 | 909 | 63% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 917 | 987 | 40% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1104 | 1074 | 54% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 909 | 999 | 37% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 902 | 1027 | 33% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1027 | 64% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 712 | 1152 | 7% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
| 1329 | 948 | 90% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 917 | 1036 | 34% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 988 | 1118 | 32% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 995 | 1143 | 30% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1182 | 995 | 75% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 938 | 1220 | 16% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1030.2 vs 1033.9 has a 49.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).