Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 93 (32 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 39
Defender wins (Polish): 54
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
975 | 1013 | 45% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
1188 | 939 | 81% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
1041 | 1064 | 47% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
1180 | 1058 | 67% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
1005 | 953 | 57% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
960 | 890 | 60% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
1010 | 1012 | 50% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
973 | 939 | 55% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
1013 | 1003 | 51% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
940 | 1172 | 21% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
978 | 1284 | 15% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
862 | 959 | 36% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
1115 | 1115 | 50% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
1046 | 1018 | 54% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
1018 | 1046 | 46% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
1284 | 1016 | 82% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
1083 | 1121 | 45% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
926 | 1013 | 38% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
918 | 1003 | 38% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
1100 | 1055 | 56% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
1058 | 1030 | 54% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
1013 | 988 | 54% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
899 | 962 | 41% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
1198 | 962 | 80% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
1300 | 988 | 86% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
941 | 1083 | 31% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
1004 | 1108 | 35% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
1058 | 1144 | 38% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
916 | 1058 | 31% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
938 | 1188 | 19% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
1225 | 1106 | 66% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1036.4 vs 1040.7 has a 49.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).