Iron Greeting
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 103 (30 on the archive and 73 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 51
Defender wins (Russian): 52
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2025-11-03 | Lost |
| 953 | 924 | 54% | 2024-01-30 | Won |
| 1106 | 1228 | 33% | 2023-07-13 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1040 | 50% | 2022-03-08 | Won |
| 1019 | 1007 | 52% | 2021-09-06 | Won |
| 1007 | 1051 | 44% | 2021-06-18 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2020-12-18 | Won |
| 946 | 864 | 62% | 2020-06-12 | Won |
| 947 | 1167 | 22% | 2019-12-15 | Won |
| 1143 | 1006 | 69% | 2019-10-06 | Won |
| 1163 | 1143 | 53% | 2019-09-29 | Won |
| 913 | 1122 | 23% | 2019-01-27 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1052 | 58% | 2018-10-22 | Lost |
| 968 | 1055 | 38% | 2018-10-19 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1006 | 69% | 2018-10-03 | Won |
| 1037 | 1044 | 49% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 940 | 1017 | 39% | 2017-09-09 | Lost |
| 1187 | 989 | 76% | 2017-06-23 | Won |
| 1061 | 1010 | 57% | 2017-02-17 | Lost |
| 1218 | 919 | 85% | 2017-01-16 | Won |
| 1419 | 1037 | 90% | 2016-09-04 | Won |
| 1250 | 1232 | 53% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1118 | 805 | 86% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1000 | 1025 | 46% | 2016-07-29 | Won |
| 1232 | 1012 | 78% | 2016-07-29 | Won |
| 974 | 1002 | 46% | 2016-07-09 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1124 | 41% | 2016-06-13 | Won |
| 1143 | 1271 | 32% | 2016-03-29 | Won |
| 1333 | 1096 | 80% | 2016-03-16 | Won |
| 890 | 1124 | 21% | 2016-03-01 | Won |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1077 vs 1045.6 has a 54.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).