The Commissar's Folly
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30 (11 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 17
Defender wins (Polish): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1182 | 1061 | 67% | 2023-10-02 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1019 | 55% | 2021-07-24 | Lost |
| 1233 | 1232 | 50% | 2021-01-20 | Lost |
| 902 | 993 | 37% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
| 1113 | 993 | 67% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
| 924 | 983 | 42% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 930 | 988 | 42% | 2017-03-30 | Lost |
| 1019 | 969 | 57% | 2016-10-05 | Won |
| 1032 | 1019 | 52% | 2016-09-08 | Lost |
| 1022 | 988 | 55% | 2016-07-23 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1120 | 34% | 2016-03-06 | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1038.1 vs 1033.2 has a 50.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).