A Real Barn Burner
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 221 (67 on the archive and 154 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 106
Defender wins (German): 115
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 948 | 56% | 2025-04-15 | Lost |
| 906 | 919 | 48% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 906 | 919 | 48% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 1002 | 1030 | 46% | 2022-08-15 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-06-15 | Won |
| 934 | 1009 | 39% | 2022-06-14 | Won |
| 929 | 1051 | 33% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 970 | 995 | 46% | 2021-08-19 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1038 | 69% | 2021-03-09 | Won |
| 991 | 977 | 52% | 2021-03-09 | Lost |
| 996 | 977 | 53% | 2021-03-07 | Won |
| 1092 | 1081 | 52% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
| 866 | 913 | 43% | 2021-01-12 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1117 | 55% | 2020-11-03 | Lost |
| 986 | 899 | 62% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1014 | 1163 | 30% | 2020-10-25 | Won |
| 1074 | 1088 | 48% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1035 | 69% | 2020-09-12 | Won |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-07-18 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2020-04-12 | Won |
| 977 | 1132 | 29% | 2020-02-12 | Lost |
| 1009 | 978 | 54% | 2020-02-11 | Won |
| 1016 | 978 | 55% | 2019-10-12 | Lost |
| 980 | 1125 | 30% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 906 | 967 | 41% | 2019-07-20 | Won |
| 987 | 1058 | 40% | 2019-05-05 | Won |
| 1055 | 905 | 70% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1209 | 38% | 2018-12-14 | Won |
| 1142 | 1101 | 56% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
| 1241 | 970 | 83% | 2018-05-27 | Lost |
| 958 | 926 | 55% | 2018-05-26 | Won |
| 973 | 973 | 50% | 2018-05-24 | Won |
| 962 | 1058 | 37% | 2018-03-25 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1209 | 38% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1137 | 906 | 79% | 2017-12-03 | Won |
| 1001 | 1003 | 50% | 2017-11-18 | Lost |
| 1019 | 982 | 55% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 1041 | 1081 | 44% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 982 | 1037 | 42% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1050 | 1219 | 27% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 1084 | 950 | 68% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
| 1248 | 1266 | 47% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1310 | 917 | 91% | 2017-09-01 | Won |
| 1080 | 1136 | 42% | 2017-08-11 | Won |
| 977 | 877 | 64% | 2017-07-22 | Won |
| 1123 | 1141 | 47% | 2017-06-25 | Lost |
| 906 | 1007 | 36% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 932 | 1127 | 25% | 2017-05-22 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1050 | 51% | 2017-04-24 | Lost |
| 1070 | 906 | 72% | 2017-04-18 | Won |
| 1266 | 873 | 91% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1143 | 1223 | 39% | 2017-04-08 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1029 | 58% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1170 | 977 | 75% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1264 | 32% | 2017-03-17 | Lost |
| 1412 | 1011 | 91% | 2017-03-11 | Won |
| 1058 | 1219 | 28% | 2017-03-10 | Won |
| 1067 | 1128 | 41% | 2017-03-05 | Won |
| 1017 | 973 | 56% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 1017 | 973 | 56% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 958 | 1049 | 37% | 2017-02-20 | Lost |
| 949 | 1080 | 32% | 2017-02-16 | Lost |
| 1019 | 903 | 66% | 2017-01-14 | Won |
| 1016 | 1110 | 37% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1110 | 40% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1131 | 34% | | Won |
Attacking (40 wins) average ELOs: 1045.3 vs 1043 has a 50.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).