A Real Barn Burner
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 227 (72 on the archive and 155 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 130
Defender wins (German): 97
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1013 | 1013 | 50% | 2025-09-15 | Won |
| 1006 | 1006 | 50% | 2025-08-09 | Lost |
| 1038 | 996 | 56% | 2025-08-07 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1107 | 50% | 2025-07-07 | Lost |
| 988 | 949 | 56% | 2025-04-15 | Lost |
| 909 | 919 | 49% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 909 | 919 | 49% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 1001 | 1030 | 46% | 2022-08-15 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-06-15 | Won |
| 940 | 1005 | 41% | 2022-06-14 | Won |
| 956 | 1051 | 37% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1044 | 996 | 57% | 2021-08-19 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1057 | 66% | 2021-03-09 | Won |
| 991 | 947 | 56% | 2021-03-09 | Lost |
| 995 | 947 | 57% | 2021-03-07 | Won |
| 1102 | 1130 | 46% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
| 866 | 900 | 45% | 2021-01-12 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1122 | 56% | 2020-11-03 | Lost |
| 986 | 899 | 62% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1014 | 1165 | 30% | 2020-10-25 | Won |
| 1074 | 1088 | 48% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1035 | 69% | 2020-09-12 | Won |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-07-18 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1014 | 54% | 2020-04-12 | Won |
| 947 | 1143 | 24% | 2020-02-12 | Lost |
| 997 | 988 | 51% | 2020-02-11 | Won |
| 1152 | 1324 | 27% | 2019-11-10 | Lost |
| 1016 | 988 | 54% | 2019-10-12 | Lost |
| 980 | 1119 | 31% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 909 | 967 | 42% | 2019-07-20 | Won |
| 994 | 1060 | 41% | 2019-05-05 | Won |
| 1029 | 905 | 67% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1214 | 36% | 2018-12-14 | Won |
| 1142 | 1101 | 56% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
| 1200 | 968 | 79% | 2018-05-27 | Lost |
| 957 | 925 | 55% | 2018-05-26 | Won |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2018-05-24 | Won |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 2018-05-22 | Won |
| 962 | 1060 | 36% | 2018-03-25 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1214 | 36% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1146 | 909 | 80% | 2017-12-03 | Won |
| 1001 | 1003 | 50% | 2017-11-18 | Lost |
| 1015 | 982 | 55% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 1028 | 1081 | 42% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 982 | 1032 | 43% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1065 | 1219 | 29% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 1066 | 988 | 61% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
| 1251 | 1274 | 47% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1329 | 917 | 91% | 2017-09-01 | Won |
| 1052 | 1137 | 38% | 2017-08-11 | Won |
| 947 | 878 | 60% | 2017-07-22 | Won |
| 1125 | 1154 | 46% | 2017-06-25 | Lost |
| 906 | 950 | 44% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 932 | 1127 | 25% | 2017-05-22 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1050 | 51% | 2017-04-24 | Lost |
| 1070 | 909 | 72% | 2017-04-18 | Won |
| 1274 | 874 | 91% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1143 | 1226 | 38% | 2017-04-08 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1029 | 58% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1101 | 1242 | 31% | 2017-03-17 | Lost |
| 1416 | 1011 | 91% | 2017-03-11 | Won |
| 1057 | 1219 | 28% | 2017-03-10 | Won |
| 1128 | 1064 | 59% | 2017-03-05 | Won |
| 972 | 1014 | 44% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 972 | 1014 | 44% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 958 | 1049 | 37% | 2017-02-20 | Lost |
| 950 | 1052 | 36% | 2017-02-16 | Lost |
| 1052 | 903 | 70% | 2017-01-14 | Won |
| 1013 | 1107 | 37% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1107 | 40% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1090 | 39% | Won |
Attacking (42 wins) average ELOs: 1046.1 vs 1042.1 has a 50.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).