Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (20 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 28
Defender wins (German): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1241 | 1000 | 80% | 2026-05-27 | | Won |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2024-01-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1050 | 43% | 2023-07-24 | | Lost |
| 930 | 1004 | 40% | 2023-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1004 | 930 | 60% | 2023-02-07 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-01-03 | | Won |
| 998 | 996 | 50% | 2022-07-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1025 | 46% | 2022-06-07 | | Won |
| 1030 | 945 | 62% | 2022-04-24 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-12-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1099 | 36% | 2020-07-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2020-05-01 | | Lost |
| 950 | 924 | 54% | 2020-03-08 | | Won |
| 988 | 1075 | 38% | 2019-11-04 | | Lost |
| 1123 | 970 | 71% | 2019-06-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2019-04-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2019-01-26 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1051 | 42% | 2019-01-12 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2018-07-27 | | Won |
| 933 | 1000 | 40% | 2017-05-22 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1008.5 vs 1004.6 has a 50.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).