Red Tears Shed on Gray
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (21 on the archive and 71 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Romanian): 47
Defender wins (Russian): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 964 | 964 | 50% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1096 | 1154 | 42% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1158 | 1018 | 69% | 2025-01-26 | Won |
| 1095 | 1154 | 42% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 956 | 1016 | 41% | 2024-02-09 | Won |
| 873 | 1016 | 31% | 2024-01-03 | Won |
| 1062 | 1044 | 53% | 2023-08-23 | Won |
| 1143 | 764 | 90% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 1036 | 892 | 70% | 2020-08-29 | Won |
| 890 | 1070 | 26% | 2020-03-11 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1064 | 59% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 1032 | 910 | 67% | 2018-08-18 | Lost |
| 994 | 1158 | 28% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 1082 | 1058 | 53% | 2018-03-08 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1329 | 21% | 2018-03-07 | Lost |
| 977 | 1060 | 38% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1036 | 970 | 59% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 1048 | 995 | 58% | 2018-01-16 | Lost |
| 1247 | 1115 | 68% | 2018-01-06 | Won |
| 1163 | 1114 | 57% | 2017-12-27 | Lost |
| 1109 | 996 | 66% | 2017-10-23 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1056.4 vs 1041 has a 52.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).