Red Tears Shed on Gray
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (22 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Romanian): 52
Defender wins (Russian): 44
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 963 | 1002 | 44% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1096 | 1147 | 43% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 991 | 1216 | 21% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1196 | 1018 | 74% | 2025-01-26 | Won |
| 1031 | 1147 | 34% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 956 | 1024 | 40% | 2024-02-09 | Won |
| 889 | 1024 | 31% | 2024-01-03 | Won |
| 1029 | 1080 | 43% | 2023-08-23 | Won |
| 1117 | 1266 | 30% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 1003 | 892 | 65% | 2020-08-29 | Won |
| 890 | 1050 | 28% | 2020-03-11 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1103 | 53% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 1018 | 910 | 65% | 2018-08-18 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1196 | 30% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 1082 | 1058 | 53% | 2018-03-08 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1333 | 20% | 2018-03-07 | Lost |
| 978 | 1079 | 36% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1003 | 959 | 56% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 1024 | 1048 | 47% | 2018-01-16 | Lost |
| 1266 | 1174 | 63% | 2018-01-06 | Won |
| 1100 | 1136 | 45% | 2017-12-27 | Lost |
| 1124 | 996 | 68% | 2017-10-23 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1046.7 vs 1084.5 has a 44.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).