Red Tears Shed on Gray
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (22 on the archive and 73 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Romanian): 51
Defender wins (Russian): 44
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 962 | 945 | 52% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1096 | 1186 | 37% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1055 | 1180 | 33% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1229 | 1018 | 77% | 2025-01-26 | Won |
| 1030 | 1186 | 29% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 956 | 999 | 44% | 2024-02-09 | Won |
| 879 | 999 | 33% | 2024-01-03 | Won |
| 1066 | 1081 | 48% | 2023-08-23 | Won |
| 1118 | 980 | 69% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 1027 | 892 | 69% | 2020-08-29 | Won |
| 891 | 1040 | 30% | 2020-03-11 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1041 | 62% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 1049 | 910 | 69% | 2018-08-18 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1229 | 28% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 1081 | 1058 | 53% | 2018-03-08 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1253 | 37% | 2018-03-07 | Lost |
| 977 | 1117 | 31% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1027 | 958 | 60% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 995 | 1054 | 42% | 2018-01-16 | Lost |
| 1303 | 1173 | 68% | 2018-01-06 | Won |
| 1096 | 1157 | 41% | 2017-12-27 | Lost |
| 1125 | 997 | 68% | 2017-10-23 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1059.7 vs 1066 has a 49.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).