Bertoldo the Brave
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 108 (30 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 53
Defender wins (American): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 967 | 845 | 67% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 1080 | 954 | 67% | 2024-07-14 | Lost |
| 1117 | 969 | 70% | 2024-06-08 | Lost |
| 993 | 974 | 53% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1172 | 50% | 2023-09-20 | Lost |
| 1050 | 981 | 60% | 2023-06-03 | Tied |
| 949 | 1228 | 17% | 2022-10-25 | Lost |
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2022-07-30 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1081 | 41% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1035 | 932 | 64% | 2021-02-02 | Won |
| 1102 | 1163 | 41% | 2020-10-19 | Lost |
| 1187 | 1283 | 37% | 2020-06-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1019 | 64% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 974 | 1026 | 43% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 969 | 980 | 48% | 2020-01-10 | Lost |
| 936 | 986 | 43% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1102 | 878 | 78% | 2019-10-20 | Won |
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2019-08-05 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1018 | 57% | 2019-07-14 | Won |
| 1204 | 824 | 90% | 2019-06-23 | Won |
| 1138 | 1131 | 51% | 2019-01-23 | Won |
| 826 | 1058 | 21% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1231 | 48% | 2019-01-04 | Won |
| 1045 | 1143 | 36% | 2018-12-16 | Lost |
| 910 | 1103 | 25% | 2018-12-15 | Lost |
| 1075 | 876 | 76% | 2018-12-06 | Won |
| 1255 | 980 | 83% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1116 | 851 | 82% | 2018-10-13 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-09-16 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1123 | 34% | 2018-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1063.2 vs 1035.6 has a 53.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).