Bertoldo the Brave
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 110 (32 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 53
Defender wins (American): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2026-09-01 | | Won |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2026-06-05 | | Lost |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2024-11-23 | | Won |
| 1123 | 984 | 69% | 2024-07-14 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 959 | 72% | 2024-06-08 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-01-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2023-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1050 | 1000 | 57% | 2023-06-03 | | Tied |
| 946 | 1227 | 17% | 2022-10-25 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 974 | 64% | 2022-07-30 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1031 | 51% | 2022-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-02-02 | | Won |
| 1102 | 1164 | 41% | 2020-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2020-06-01 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1034 | 66% | 2020-03-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2020-01-18 | | Lost |
| 969 | 980 | 48% | 2020-01-10 | | Lost |
| 936 | 986 | 43% | 2019-10-30 | | Won |
| 1102 | 878 | 78% | 2019-10-20 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2019-08-05 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2019-07-14 | | Won |
| 1157 | 808 | 88% | 2019-06-23 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2019-01-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2019-01-19 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1000 | 78% | 2019-01-04 | | Won |
| 1078 | 1143 | 41% | 2018-12-16 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2018-12-15 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 876 | 77% | 2018-12-06 | | Won |
| 1133 | 850 | 84% | 2018-10-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2018-10-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2018-09-16 | | Lost |
| 1010 | 1120 | 35% | 2018-09-03 | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1044.3 vs 1031.2 has a 51.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).