Bertoldo the Brave
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 106 (28 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 53
Defender wins (American): 52
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 942 | 864 | 61% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 1080 | 954 | 67% | 2024-07-14 | Lost |
| 1117 | 969 | 70% | 2024-06-08 | Lost |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 1050 | 981 | 60% | 2023-06-03 | Tied |
| 949 | 1228 | 17% | 2022-10-25 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1022 | 50% | 2022-07-30 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1082 | 41% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1034 | 932 | 64% | 2021-02-02 | Won |
| 1102 | 1163 | 41% | 2020-10-19 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1018 | 57% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 973 | 1023 | 43% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 969 | 1008 | 44% | 2020-01-10 | Lost |
| 956 | 997 | 44% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1102 | 878 | 78% | 2019-10-20 | Won |
| 1123 | 1123 | 50% | 2019-08-05 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1018 | 56% | 2019-07-14 | Won |
| 1156 | 826 | 87% | 2019-06-23 | Won |
| 1138 | 1133 | 51% | 2019-01-23 | Won |
| 827 | 1203 | 10% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1227 | 49% | 2019-01-04 | Won |
| 1028 | 1078 | 43% | 2018-12-16 | Lost |
| 927 | 1017 | 37% | 2018-12-15 | Lost |
| 1050 | 876 | 73% | 2018-12-06 | Won |
| 1154 | 934 | 78% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1153 | 858 | 85% | 2018-10-13 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-09-16 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1106 | 36% | 2018-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1050 vs 1025.6 has a 53.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).