Bertoldo the Brave
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 109 (31 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 53
Defender wins (American): 55
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 967 | 845 | 67% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 1080 | 954 | 67% | 2024-07-14 | Lost |
| 1118 | 969 | 70% | 2024-06-08 | Lost |
| 993 | 974 | 53% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1173 | 50% | 2023-09-20 | Lost |
| 1050 | 981 | 60% | 2023-06-03 | Tied |
| 949 | 1228 | 17% | 2022-10-25 | Lost |
| 1065 | 979 | 62% | 2022-07-30 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1029 | 51% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1035 | 933 | 64% | 2021-02-02 | Won |
| 1102 | 1163 | 41% | 2020-10-19 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1263 | 39% | 2020-06-01 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1020 | 66% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 974 | 1014 | 44% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 969 | 980 | 48% | 2020-01-10 | Lost |
| 936 | 986 | 43% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1102 | 878 | 78% | 2019-10-20 | Won |
| 1005 | 1005 | 50% | 2019-08-05 | Lost |
| 998 | 1018 | 47% | 2019-07-14 | Won |
| 1189 | 824 | 89% | 2019-06-23 | Won |
| 1138 | 1132 | 51% | 2019-01-23 | Won |
| 826 | 1063 | 20% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1234 | 48% | 2019-01-04 | Won |
| 1018 | 1143 | 33% | 2018-12-16 | Lost |
| 884 | 1102 | 22% | 2018-12-15 | Lost |
| 1040 | 876 | 72% | 2018-12-06 | Won |
| 1172 | 964 | 77% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1123 | 851 | 83% | 2018-10-13 | Won |
| 1338 | 1343 | 49% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-09-16 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1120 | 35% | 2018-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1064.6 vs 1041 has a 53.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).