Liehr Launches First
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 141 (45 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 72
Defender wins (American): 68
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 991 | 982 | 51% | 2025-10-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 1047 | 51% | 2025-10-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 968 | 70% | 2025-07-09 | Won |
| 946 | 864 | 62% | 2025-01-25 | Lost |
| 1070 | 998 | 60% | 2024-02-06 | Lost |
| 985 | 973 | 52% | 2023-08-13 | Won |
| 893 | 994 | 36% | 2022-09-24 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1102 | 46% | 2022-08-03 | Won |
| 1022 | 1082 | 41% | 2022-08-02 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1135 | 48% | 2022-06-12 | Won |
| 944 | 1333 | 10% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1333 | 13% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1031 | 85% | 2021-12-27 | Won |
| 1074 | 908 | 72% | 2021-12-11 | Won |
| 1013 | 1030 | 48% | 2021-10-10 | Won |
| 1013 | 989 | 53% | 2021-08-28 | Lost |
| 946 | 933 | 52% | 2021-07-04 | Won |
| 1044 | 993 | 57% | 2021-06-09 | Won |
| 1012 | 999 | 52% | 2021-04-27 | Won |
| 1124 | 1006 | 66% | 2021-03-21 | Won |
| 923 | 973 | 43% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1153 | 32% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 989 | 1103 | 34% | 2021-01-15 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1045 | 66% | 2020-12-31 | Won |
| 1025 | 1056 | 46% | 2020-09-26 | Won |
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2019-12-29 | Won |
| 983 | 1104 | 33% | 2019-07-27 | Lost |
| 973 | 1112 | 31% | 2019-07-18 | Lost |
| 1183 | 1032 | 70% | 2019-06-14 | Won |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2019-05-26 | Lost |
| 875 | 1016 | 31% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1151 | 36% | 2019-03-24 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1229 | 49% | 2019-02-08 | Won |
| 805 | 879 | 40% | 2019-01-29 | Won |
| 1078 | 1002 | 61% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1109 | 805 | 85% | 2019-01-03 | Lost |
| 1050 | 876 | 73% | 2019-01-02 | Won |
| 1082 | 1058 | 53% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1195 | 805 | 90% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1094 | 1138 | 44% | 2018-11-05 | Lost |
| 858 | 1178 | 14% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1039 | 46% | 2018-10-05 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1051 | 44% | 2018-09-21 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1026 | 52% | 2018-08-12 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1104 | 48% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1037.2 vs 1038.6 has a 49.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).