Liehr Launches First
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50
Attacker wins (German): 25
Defender wins (American): 25
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2026-09-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2025-10-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2025-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 959 | 72% | 2025-07-09 | | Won |
| 932 | 843 | 63% | 2025-01-25 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 984 | 73% | 2025-01-06 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2024-02-06 | A | Lost |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2023-08-30 | | Won |
| 985 | 981 | 51% | 2023-08-13 | | Won |
| 992 | 995 | 50% | 2022-09-24 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2022-08-03 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1014 | 53% | 2022-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1132 | 49% | 2022-06-12 | | Won |
| 941 | 1219 | 17% | 2022-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2021-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1018 | 76% | 2021-12-27 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-12-11 | | Won |
| 1095 | 945 | 70% | 2021-10-10 | | Won |
| 985 | 989 | 49% | 2021-08-28 | | Lost |
| 932 | 932 | 50% | 2021-07-04 | | Won |
| 949 | 1035 | 38% | 2021-06-09 | | Won |
| 1029 | 999 | 54% | 2021-04-27 | | Won |
| 1145 | 1006 | 69% | 2021-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2021-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1006 | 1150 | 30% | 2021-03-21 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1102 | 34% | 2021-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1045 | 66% | 2020-12-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1054 | 42% | 2020-09-26 | | Won |
| 1004 | 1004 | 50% | 2019-12-29 | | Won |
| 1104 | 1000 | 65% | 2019-07-27 | | Lost |
| 808 | 1242 | 8% | 2019-07-26 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1156 | 27% | 2019-07-18 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1036 | 64% | 2019-06-14 | | Won |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2019-05-26 | | Lost |
| 921 | 1000 | 39% | 2019-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1000 | 56% | 2019-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1000 | 78% | 2019-02-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 892 | 65% | 2019-01-29 | | Won |
| 1142 | 1059 | 62% | 2019-01-19 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2019-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 876 | 74% | 2019-01-02 | | Won |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-12-21 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2018-11-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2018-11-05 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1147 | 15% | 2018-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2018-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2018-10-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2018-10-05 | | Lost |
| 959 | 1045 | 38% | 2018-09-21 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2018-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1040.4 vs 1032.1 has a 51.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).