Liehr Launches First
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (43 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 67
Defender wins (American): 71
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 969 | 70% | 2025-07-09 | Won |
| 935 | 864 | 60% | 2025-01-25 | Lost |
| 1048 | 995 | 58% | 2024-02-06 | Lost |
| 985 | 909 | 61% | 2023-08-13 | Won |
| 898 | 994 | 37% | 2022-09-24 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1102 | 50% | 2022-08-03 | Won |
| 1022 | 1082 | 41% | 2022-08-02 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1124 | 50% | 2022-06-12 | Won |
| 944 | 1329 | 10% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1329 | 13% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1329 | 1029 | 85% | 2021-12-27 | Won |
| 1074 | 908 | 72% | 2021-12-11 | Won |
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2021-10-10 | Won |
| 1016 | 982 | 55% | 2021-08-28 | Lost |
| 935 | 933 | 50% | 2021-07-04 | Won |
| 1044 | 993 | 57% | 2021-06-09 | Won |
| 995 | 999 | 49% | 2021-04-27 | Won |
| 1109 | 1006 | 64% | 2021-03-21 | Won |
| 925 | 909 | 52% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1189 | 27% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 989 | 1110 | 33% | 2021-01-15 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1044 | 66% | 2020-12-31 | Won |
| 1025 | 1056 | 46% | 2020-09-26 | Won |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2019-12-29 | Won |
| 1020 | 1108 | 38% | 2019-07-27 | Lost |
| 909 | 1111 | 24% | 2019-07-18 | Lost |
| 1181 | 1031 | 70% | 2019-06-14 | Won |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2019-05-26 | Lost |
| 998 | 1017 | 47% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1152 | 36% | 2019-03-24 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1227 | 49% | 2019-02-08 | Won |
| 764 | 878 | 34% | 2019-01-29 | Won |
| 1078 | 1036 | 56% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1143 | 764 | 90% | 2019-01-03 | Lost |
| 1118 | 876 | 80% | 2019-01-02 | Won |
| 1082 | 1058 | 53% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1094 | 1138 | 44% | 2018-11-05 | Lost |
| 857 | 1127 | 17% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1039 | 46% | 2018-10-05 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1052 | 44% | 2018-09-21 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1032 | 50% | 2018-08-12 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1038.7 vs 1034 has a 50.67% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).