Liehr Launches First
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 142 (46 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 73
Defender wins (American): 68
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 991 | 963 | 54% | 2025-10-28 | Won |
| 1060 | 1068 | 49% | 2025-10-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 969 | 70% | 2025-07-09 | Won |
| 965 | 843 | 67% | 2025-01-25 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1055 | 43% | 2024-02-06 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2023-08-30 | Won |
| 985 | 944 | 56% | 2023-08-13 | Won |
| 940 | 994 | 42% | 2022-09-24 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1102 | 46% | 2022-08-03 | Won |
| 1022 | 1082 | 41% | 2022-08-02 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1135 | 48% | 2022-06-12 | Won |
| 944 | 1340 | 9% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1340 | 12% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1048 | 84% | 2021-12-27 | Won |
| 1075 | 913 | 72% | 2021-12-11 | Won |
| 1027 | 1015 | 52% | 2021-10-10 | Won |
| 980 | 989 | 49% | 2021-08-28 | Lost |
| 965 | 933 | 55% | 2021-07-04 | Won |
| 1013 | 993 | 53% | 2021-06-09 | Won |
| 1012 | 999 | 52% | 2021-04-27 | Won |
| 1124 | 1006 | 66% | 2021-03-21 | Won |
| 923 | 944 | 47% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1196 | 27% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 989 | 1103 | 34% | 2021-01-15 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1045 | 66% | 2020-12-31 | Won |
| 1025 | 1056 | 46% | 2020-09-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1073 | 50% | 2019-12-29 | Won |
| 1038 | 1099 | 41% | 2019-07-27 | Lost |
| 944 | 1112 | 28% | 2019-07-18 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1035 | 62% | 2019-06-14 | Won |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2019-05-26 | Lost |
| 919 | 1015 | 37% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1151 | 33% | 2019-03-24 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1229 | 48% | 2019-02-08 | Won |
| 979 | 879 | 64% | 2019-01-29 | Won |
| 1065 | 1010 | 58% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1113 | 979 | 68% | 2019-01-03 | Lost |
| 1073 | 876 | 76% | 2019-01-02 | Won |
| 1082 | 1058 | 53% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1206 | 979 | 79% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1094 | 1138 | 44% | 2018-11-05 | Lost |
| 853 | 1154 | 15% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1054 | 43% | 2018-10-05 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1029 | 47% | 2018-09-21 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1037 | 50% | 2018-08-12 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1118 | 46% | | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1043.4 vs 1049.6 has a 49.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).