As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 88 (23 on the archive and 65 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 46
Defender wins (British): 41
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 978 | 1023 | 44% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1055 | 1213 | 29% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 951 | 880 | 60% | 2022-04-02 | Won |
| 1028 | 993 | 55% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 1048 | 959 | 63% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1059 | 1058 | 50% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 885 | 881 | 51% | 2020-06-18 | Won |
| 1072 | 985 | 62% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 863 | 982 | 34% | 2019-09-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 997 | 49% | 2019-08-17 | Lost |
| 937 | 975 | 45% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 937 | 975 | 45% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 881 | 937 | 42% | 2019-07-27 | Tied |
| 1310 | 1082 | 79% | 2019-04-18 | Lost |
| 1133 | 937 | 76% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1070 | 1084 | 48% | 2019-02-28 | Lost |
| 933 | 1005 | 40% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1209 | 1140 | 60% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1140 | 60% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1167 | 28% | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1027.9 vs 1028.9 has a 49.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).