As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (26 on the archive and 66 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 46
Defender wins (British): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 993 | 948 | 56% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 1141 | 868 | 83% | 2025-01-03 | Lost |
| 975 | 1055 | 39% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1032 | 1204 | 27% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1003 | 885 | 66% | 2022-04-02 | Won |
| 1043 | 897 | 70% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 1128 | 969 | 71% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1084 | 1009 | 61% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 884 | 913 | 46% | 2020-06-18 | Won |
| 1116 | 1228 | 34% | 2020-04-24 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1114 | 40% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 861 | 1058 | 24% | 2019-09-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 948 | 56% | 2019-08-17 | Lost |
| 1141 | 973 | 72% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1141 | 973 | 72% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 877 | 1141 | 18% | 2019-07-27 | Tied |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2019-04-18 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1141 | 57% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1119 | 1080 | 56% | 2019-02-28 | Lost |
| 1017 | 973 | 56% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1209 | 1157 | 57% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1157 | 57% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1131 | 33% | | Lost |
| 882 | 1131 | 19% | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1055.3 vs 1047.5 has a 51.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).