As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (26 on the archive and 66 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 46
Defender wins (British): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 976 | 947 | 54% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 1268 | 868 | 91% | 2025-01-03 | Lost |
| 976 | 1033 | 42% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1032 | 1204 | 27% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1000 | 875 | 67% | 2022-04-02 | Won |
| 1021 | 932 | 63% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 1064 | 969 | 63% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1084 | 1025 | 58% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 885 | 900 | 48% | 2020-06-18 | Won |
| 1124 | 1254 | 32% | 2020-04-24 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1098 | 41% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 861 | 1060 | 24% | 2019-09-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 947 | 57% | 2019-08-17 | Lost |
| 1268 | 974 | 84% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1268 | 974 | 84% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 879 | 1268 | 10% | 2019-07-27 | Tied |
| 1329 | 1096 | 79% | 2019-04-18 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1268 | 35% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 995 | 1048 | 42% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1064 | 1052 | 52% | 2019-02-28 | Lost |
| 964 | 1019 | 42% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1220 | 1127 | 63% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1127 | 63% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1090 | 45% | | Lost |
| 881 | 1090 | 23% | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1065.7 vs 1051.2 has a 52.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).