As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 100 (30 on the archive and 70 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 54
Defender wins (British): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2026-07-31 | | Won |
| 1211 | 996 | 78% | 2026-06-17 | | Lost |
| 999 | 841 | 71% | 2026-06-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2025-10-02 | | Won |
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2025-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 868 | 68% | 2025-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2024-05-17 | | Won |
| 972 | 1218 | 20% | 2024-05-09 | | Lost |
| 987 | 865 | 67% | 2022-04-02 | | Won |
| 1027 | 1029 | 50% | 2021-07-10 | | Won |
| 1025 | 976 | 57% | 2021-03-03 | | Won |
| 1110 | 967 | 69% | 2020-07-27 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2020-07-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2020-06-18 | | Won |
| 1132 | 1275 | 31% | 2020-04-24 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2020-02-27 | | Won |
| 862 | 1147 | 16% | 2019-09-05 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1000 | 49% | 2019-08-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 975 | 54% | 2019-07-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 975 | 54% | 2019-07-28 | | Won |
| 889 | 1000 | 35% | 2019-07-27 | | Tied |
| 1344 | 1100 | 80% | 2019-06-20 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2019-04-18 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1019 | 52% | 2019-03-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2019-02-28 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2019-02-23 | | Won |
| 1220 | 1123 | 64% | 2019-01-18 | | Lost |
| 1220 | 1123 | 64% | 2019-01-18 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1070 | 42% | | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1070 | 40% | | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1054.3 vs 1027.5 has a 53.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).