As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (28 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 50
Defender wins (British): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1075 | 1031 | 56% | 2025-10-02 | Won |
| 1009 | 981 | 54% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 930 | 868 | 59% | 2025-01-03 | Lost |
| 977 | 982 | 49% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 985 | 1218 | 21% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 986 | 875 | 65% | 2022-04-02 | Won |
| 1036 | 1015 | 53% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 967 | 970 | 50% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1100 | 1014 | 62% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 884 | 890 | 49% | 2020-06-18 | Won |
| 1136 | 1276 | 31% | 2020-04-24 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1037 | 45% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 862 | 1135 | 17% | 2019-09-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 981 | 52% | 2019-08-17 | Lost |
| 930 | 975 | 44% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 930 | 975 | 44% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 879 | 930 | 43% | 2019-07-27 | Tied |
| 1343 | 1100 | 80% | 2019-06-20 | Won |
| 1234 | 1174 | 59% | 2019-04-18 | Lost |
| 1182 | 930 | 81% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 1160 | 919 | 80% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1069 | 974 | 63% | 2019-02-28 | Lost |
| 941 | 1078 | 31% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1220 | 1123 | 64% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1123 | 64% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1036 | 50% | | Lost |
| 878 | 1036 | 29% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1037.7 vs 1026.2 has a 51.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).