20 Years Later
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (17 on the archive and 14 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 16
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1121 | 1121 | 50% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 973 | 1017 | 44% | 2024-05-24 | Won |
| 1041 | 786 | 81% | 2023-08-02 | Lost |
| 1168 | 1061 | 65% | 2023-04-29 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1152 | 40% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1014 | 1254 | 20% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1427 | 1431 | 49% | 2021-01-29 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1204 | 27% | 2020-04-23 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1032 | 73% | 2020-04-23 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1073 | 50% | 2020-03-31 | Won |
| 1032 | 977 | 58% | 2020-01-22 | Won |
| 1076 | 1073 | 50% | 2020-01-14 | Tied |
| 1073 | 1076 | 50% | 2020-01-14 | Tied |
| 978 | 1170 | 25% | 2019-11-27 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1044 | 50% | 2019-10-19 | Lost |
| 786 | 1041 | 19% | 2019-08-04 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1170 | 53% | 2019-05-15 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1077.4 vs 1098.9 has a 46.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).