Kawaguchi's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 52 (28 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 21
Defender wins (American (USMC)): 29
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1036 | 1045 | 49% | 2023-12-10 | Tied |
865 | 876 | 48% | 2023-06-24 | Lost |
1030 | 1063 | 45% | 2022-12-22 | Lost |
1032 | 1063 | 46% | 2022-11-16 | Won |
1063 | 1429 | 11% | 2022-11-13 | Lost |
937 | 1063 | 33% | 2022-10-24 | Won |
956 | 1429 | 6% | 2022-09-03 | Lost |
1056 | 1143 | 38% | 2022-01-02 | Lost |
937 | 1164 | 21% | 2021-10-31 | Lost |
1058 | 972 | 62% | 2021-07-11 | Lost |
1058 | 1041 | 52% | 2021-06-25 | Lost |
1036 | 1030 | 51% | 2021-01-30 | Tied |
1040 | 1026 | 52% | 2021-01-09 | Lost |
1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2020-11-25 | Lost |
1164 | 1054 | 65% | 2020-11-15 | Lost |
1007 | 1175 | 28% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
1429 | 945 | 94% | 2020-05-21 | Won |
1159 | 1034 | 67% | 2020-05-19 | Lost |
1178 | 1051 | 68% | 2020-04-21 | Lost |
1036 | 1052 | 48% | 2020-03-26 | Lost |
1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
1429 | 1427 | 50% | 2020-02-15 | Won |
1115 | 1055 | 59% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
1429 | 1141 | 84% | 2020-01-24 | Won |
990 | 1027 | 45% | 2020-01-10 | Won |
1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2019-12-14 | Won |
1026 | 1000 | 54% | 2019-07-28 | Lost |
925 | 1000 | 39% | 2019-07-10 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1078 vs 1087.4 has a 48.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).