Kawaguchi's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (30 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 22
Defender wins (American (USMC)): 29
With balance for both players:
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Japanese): 0
Defender wins (American (USMC)): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1008 | 1000 | 51% | 2025-08-19 | A+D | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-05-04 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2023-12-10 | | Tied |
| 878 | 1000 | 33% | 2023-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2022-12-22 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 970 | 58% | 2022-11-16 | | Won |
| 970 | 1431 | 7% | 2022-11-13 | | Lost |
| 996 | 970 | 54% | 2022-10-24 | | Won |
| 954 | 1431 | 6% | 2022-09-03 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1143 | 38% | 2022-01-02 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1092 | 37% | 2021-10-31 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-07-11 | | Lost |
| 989 | 969 | 53% | 2021-06-25 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-01-30 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2021-01-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 2020-11-25 | | Lost |
| 1092 | 1000 | 63% | 2020-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1012 | 1102 | 37% | 2020-08-09 | | Lost |
| 1431 | 945 | 94% | 2020-05-21 | | Won |
| 1172 | 1057 | 66% | 2020-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1045 | 66% | 2020-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2020-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2020-03-12 | | Won |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2020-02-15 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2020-01-31 | | Won |
| 1431 | 1140 | 84% | 2020-01-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2020-01-10 | | Won |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2019-12-14 | | Won |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2019-07-28 | | Lost |
| 1191 | 1000 | 75% | 2019-07-10 | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1075.6 vs 1047.5 has a 54.03% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).