Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (13 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (French): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 992 | 1007 | 48% | 2026-04-09 | Won |
| 1174 | 1005 | 73% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 1283 | 1220 | 59% | 2024-06-14 | Lost |
| 1065 | 979 | 62% | 2024-04-01 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1054 | 51% | 2022-08-04 | Lost |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2021-05-03 | Won |
| 900 | 1131 | 21% | 2020-10-27 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1220 | 943 | 83% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1030 | 1191 | 28% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 961 | 884 | 61% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1110.7 vs 1031.4 has a 61.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).