Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (13 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (French): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1218 | 21% | 2026-04-09 | Won |
| 1225 | 1005 | 78% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 1231 | 1245 | 48% | 2024-06-14 | Lost |
| 1054 | 988 | 59% | 2024-04-01 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1055 | 52% | 2022-08-04 | Lost |
| 1102 | 914 | 75% | 2021-05-03 | Won |
| 739 | 1143 | 9% | 2020-10-27 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1038 | 74% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1030 | 1243 | 23% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 961 | 942 | 53% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1097.2 vs 1067.8 has a 54.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).