Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (13 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (French): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2026-04-09 | | Won |
| 1131 | 1005 | 67% | 2025-08-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2024-06-14 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 979 | 63% | 2024-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1000 | 68% | 2022-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1102 | 872 | 79% | 2021-05-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2020-10-27 | | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1298 | 1097 | 76% | 2020-05-03 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1204 | 25% | 2020-03-01 | | Lost |
| 961 | 924 | 55% | 2020-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1103.6 vs 1032.3 has a 60.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).