Autumn Approach
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (13 on the archive and 37 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 30
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1139 | 1063 | 61% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 891 | 882 | 51% | 2024-04-02 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1155 | 32% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 920 | 1075 | 29% | 2023-02-05 | Lost |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2022-10-26 | Won |
| 908 | 960 | 43% | 2022-09-21 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1256 | 30% | 2022-02-18 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1173 | 34% | 2022-01-02 | Won |
| 1040 | 1047 | 49% | 2021-12-03 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1035 | 47% | 2021-11-17 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1065 | 51% | 2021-10-01 | Lost |
| 1192 | 918 | 83% | 2021-05-11 | Won |
| 1139 | 968 | 73% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1037.9 vs 1052.4 has a 47.92% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).