Autumn Approach
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (13 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 20
Defender wins (German): 38
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2025-08-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 850 | 70% | 2024-04-02 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1144 | 41% | 2023-07-28 | | Lost |
| 909 | 1077 | 28% | 2023-02-05 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1078 | 36% | 2022-10-26 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2022-09-21 | | Lost |
| 1140 | 1272 | 32% | 2022-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1057 | 1172 | 34% | 2022-01-02 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2021-12-03 | | Lost |
| 999 | 963 | 55% | 2021-11-17 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1077 | 50% | 2021-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1111 | 967 | 70% | 2021-05-11 | | Won |
| 1133 | 968 | 72% | 2021-05-10 | | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1041 vs 1043.7 has a 49.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).