Autumn Approach
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 49 (13 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 17
Defender wins (German): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 891 | 886 | 51% | 2024-04-02 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1156 | 32% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 896 | 1102 | 23% | 2023-02-05 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2022-10-26 | Won |
| 870 | 960 | 37% | 2022-09-21 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1220 | 34% | 2022-02-18 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1174 | 34% | 2022-01-02 | Won |
| 1032 | 1047 | 48% | 2021-12-03 | Lost |
| 996 | 1048 | 43% | 2021-11-17 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1065 | 51% | 2021-10-01 | Lost |
| 1162 | 900 | 82% | 2021-05-11 | Won |
| 1177 | 968 | 77% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1027.5 vs 1047.9 has a 47.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).