Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (27 on the archive and 55 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (German): 39
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1044 | 1147 | 36% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1179 | 881 | 85% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1029 | 975 | 58% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1283 | 31% | 2025-09-26 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1084 | 47% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1035 | 47% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1159 | 1169 | 49% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 997 | 991 | 51% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1235 | 894 | 88% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1084 | 40% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1045 | 1130 | 38% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1123 | 1154 | 46% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 967 | 1019 | 43% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 969 | 1142 | 27% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 1078 | 37% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1077 | 1170 | 37% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1232 | 896 | 87% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1123 | 1252 | 32% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1023 | 1044 | 47% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 991 | 1040 | 43% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 999 | 1252 | 19% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1423 | 1018 | 91% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1100 | 1018 | 62% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 755 | 1232 | 6% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1235 | 991 | 80% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1232 | 755 | 94% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1252 | 1157 | 63% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1089.3 vs 1070 has a 52.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).