Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 90 (28 on the archive and 62 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 44
Defender wins (German): 42
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1146 | 1016 | 68% | 2026-06-28 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1138 | 39% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1181 | 869 | 86% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1075 | 1030 | 56% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1263 | 33% | 2025-09-26 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1074 | 41% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1034 | 50% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1119 | 1182 | 41% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1038 | 993 | 56% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1185 | 894 | 84% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1152 | 33% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1063 | 1130 | 40% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1120 | 1153 | 45% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 944 | 1051 | 35% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 988 | 1156 | 28% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1044 | 1241 | 24% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1168 | 901 | 82% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1127 | 1219 | 37% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 939 | 1016 | 39% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1001 | 1219 | 22% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1434 | 1017 | 92% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1101 | 976 | 67% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 734 | 1168 | 8% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1021 | 72% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1168 | 734 | 92% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1083.5 vs 1068.2 has a 52.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).