Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (22 on the archive and 50 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 36
Defender wins (German): 32
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1069 | 1035 | 55% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1133 | 1142 | 49% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1032 | 985 | 57% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1210 | 898 | 86% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1109 | 37% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1061 | 1130 | 40% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1110 | 1136 | 46% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 924 | 1008 | 38% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 969 | 1129 | 28% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1166 | 967 | 76% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1165 | 1282 | 34% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1193 | 922 | 83% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1126 | 1316 | 25% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 973 | 1061 | 38% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 1115 | 998 | 66% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1011 | 1316 | 15% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1407 | 1029 | 90% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1095 | 927 | 72% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 753 | 1193 | 7% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1032 | 74% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1193 | 753 | 93% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1316 | 1096 | 78% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1102 vs 1066.5 has a 55.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).