Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 87 (27 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 43
Defender wins (German): 40
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1075 | 1155 | 39% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1211 | 869 | 88% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1075 | 984 | 63% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1263 | 33% | 2025-09-26 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1091 | 39% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 988 | 1035 | 43% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1127 | 1182 | 42% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1040 | 993 | 57% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1230 | 894 | 87% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1151 | 33% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 968 | 1130 | 28% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1120 | 1153 | 45% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 944 | 1089 | 30% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 988 | 1023 | 45% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1053 | 1238 | 26% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1225 | 900 | 87% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1127 | 1231 | 35% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1151 | 928 | 78% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 952 | 1035 | 38% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1001 | 1231 | 21% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1434 | 1017 | 92% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1101 | 998 | 64% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 746 | 1225 | 6% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1230 | 986 | 80% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1225 | 746 | 94% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1231 | 1179 | 57% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1091 vs 1067.3 has a 53.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).