Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 86 (27 on the archive and 62 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 44
Defender wins (German): 41
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1147 | 1050 | 64% | 2026-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 1141 | 44% | 2025-11-28 | | Won |
| 1202 | 870 | 87% | 2025-11-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 954 | 57% | 2025-11-28 | | Lost |
| 1143 | 1242 | 36% | 2025-09-26 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1086 | 40% | 2025-09-22 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2025-03-28 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2024-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-05-11 | | Won |
| 1208 | 1000 | 77% | 2024-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1149 | 35% | 2024-03-02 | | Won |
| 1041 | 1000 | 56% | 2024-03-01 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2024-01-12 | | Lost |
| 932 | 1040 | 35% | 2023-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2023-10-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1107 | 35% | 2023-07-28 | | Won |
| 1069 | 1170 | 36% | 2023-07-28 | A | Lost |
| 1284 | 901 | 90% | 2023-07-08 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1219 | 37% | 2023-06-10 | | Tied |
| 1001 | 1058 | 42% | 2023-03-22 | D | Won |
| 933 | 1017 | 38% | 2023-03-20 | A | Won |
| 1001 | 1219 | 22% | 2023-03-17 | | Lost |
| 1435 | 1018 | 92% | 2023-03-07 | | Won |
| 1101 | 963 | 69% | 2023-03-02 | | Won |
| 728 | 1284 | 4% | 2023-02-22 | | Lost |
| 1284 | 728 | 96% | 2023-02-13 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2023-01-11 | | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1088.3 vs 1054.8 has a 54.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).