Polka's Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22 (10 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 11
Defender wins (French): 11
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2026-07-02 | Won |
| 909 | 928 | 47% | 2026-03-14 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1208 | 43% | 2025-10-17 | Won |
| 1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2025-10-11 | Won |
| 925 | 1068 | 31% | 2025-10-04 | Lost |
| 925 | 1068 | 31% | 2025-10-04 | Lost |
| 890 | 1034 | 30% | 2025-05-27 | Lost |
| 1076 | 968 | 65% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 780 | 997 | 22% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 986 | 1044 | 42% | 2025-04-14 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 992.6 vs 1054.2 has a 41.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).