Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 493 (71 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 250
Defender wins (American): 243
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 910 | 925 | 48% | 2024-12-20 | Lost |
| 805 | 1032 | 21% | 2024-01-13 | Won |
| 1153 | 1110 | 56% | 2023-05-01 | Won |
| 1023 | 985 | 55% | 2022-01-14 | Won |
| 984 | 1049 | 41% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1030 | 1063 | 45% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1030 | 1063 | 45% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 984 | 1049 | 41% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 984 | 1049 | 41% | 2021-12-29 | Lost |
| 1043 | 953 | 63% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 1043 | 953 | 63% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 1030 | 1063 | 45% | 2021-12-28 | Won |
| 879 | 962 | 38% | 2021-12-18 | Lost |
| 973 | 1002 | 46% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1228 | 31% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
| 974 | 946 | 54% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
| 953 | 1043 | 37% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
| 953 | 1043 | 37% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1007 | 60% | 2020-12-21 | Won |
| 1105 | 1074 | 54% | 2019-03-01 | Won |
| 932 | 998 | 41% | 2019-01-29 | Lost |
| 949 | 904 | 56% | 2018-02-14 | Won |
| 1005 | 1040 | 45% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1030 | 48% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1112 | 987 | 67% | 2016-12-22 | Lost |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
| 897 | 919 | 47% | 2016-10-14 | Won |
| 1143 | 1107 | 55% | 2016-08-01 | Lost |
| 987 | 973 | 52% | 2016-03-29 | Won |
| 1109 | 805 | 85% | 2016-03-14 | Won |
| 960 | 960 | 50% | 2016-03-12 | Won |
| 1082 | 1103 | 47% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 938 | 1271 | 13% | 2015-09-21 | Lost |
| 802 | 960 | 29% | 2015-06-27 | Won |
| 805 | 1109 | 15% | 2015-06-23 | Won |
| 1100 | 1035 | 59% | 2015-05-04 | Won |
| 987 | 1023 | 45% | 2012-12-01 | Won |
| 987 | 805 | 74% | 2012-12-01 | Lost |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1067 | 917 | 70% | 2012-04-02 | Won |
| 1134 | 1100 | 55% | 2012-01-25 | Lost |
| 919 | 976 | 42% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
| 1197 | 1041 | 71% | 2010-12-04 | Won |
| 805 | 1055 | 19% | 2010-11-12 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1039 | 54% | 2010-03-12 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1169 | 41% | 2009-10-09 | Won |
| 906 | 1151 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1151 | 41% | 2009-09-10 | Won |
| 1139 | 919 | 78% | 2009-07-09 | Lost |
| 1125 | 967 | 71% | 2009-06-08 | Won |
| 1163 | 1105 | 58% | 2008-06-15 | Lost |
| 805 | 920 | 34% | 2008-04-18 | Won |
| 903 | 1009 | 35% | 2008-03-20 | Lost |
| 920 | 805 | 66% | 2008-02-16 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1143 | 32% | 2007-11-18 | Won |
| 1051 | 890 | 72% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1419 | 1333 | 62% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1333 | 17% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
| 977 | 862 | 66% | 2007-01-13 | Won |
| 1070 | 1039 | 54% | 2006-01-14 | Won |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2005-12-20 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1117 | 45% | 2004-10-31 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1218 | 41% | 2004-05-16 | Won |
| 929 | 982 | 42% | 2002-01-19 | Won |
| 920 | 1100 | 26% | 2000-04-29 | Won |
| 1044 | 1164 | 33% | 1999-11-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 1002 | 41% | 1997-12-25 | Won |
| 999 | 1228 | 21% | 1996-11-15 | Won |
| 911 | 1153 | 20% | 1993-03-12 | Won |
Attacking (41 wins) average ELOs: 1010.4 vs 1031 has a 47.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).