The Taking of Takrouna
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 156 (18 on the archive and 138 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 64
Defender wins (Italian): 92
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 945 | 947 | 50% | 2022-03-05 | Lost |
| 947 | 927 | 53% | 2022-02-15 | Won |
| 1004 | 1007 | 50% | 2020-04-11 | Lost |
| 943 | 1032 | 37% | 2018-09-16 | Lost |
| 981 | 1063 | 38% | 2018-07-27 | Lost |
| 1019 | 931 | 62% | 2016-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1106 | 39% | 2015-07-14 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1316 | 1145 | 73% | 2014-12-07 | Lost |
| 1094 | 944 | 70% | 2013-12-01 | Won |
| 966 | 1007 | 44% | 2013-05-14 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1058 | 43% | 2013-01-01 | Won |
| 1037 | 1091 | 42% | 2010-05-01 | Won |
| 1032 | 920 | 66% | 2008-08-27 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1029 | 63% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1055 | 52% | 2003-02-07 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1032 | 75% | 1998-05-10 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1058 | 50% | 1991-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1042.8 vs 1018.2 has a 53.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).