An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 129 (30 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 78
Defender wins (German): 48
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Polish): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1061 | 973 | 62% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 1032 | 861 | 73% | 2025-01-15 | Won |
| 1032 | 943 | 63% | 2022-12-03 | Lost |
| 1015 | 997 | 53% | 2022-01-27 | Tied |
| 1116 | 1029 | 62% | 2022-01-18 | Won |
| 1106 | 952 | 71% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-03-30 | Lost |
| 872 | 888 | 48% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 995 | 1049 | 42% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
| 992 | 964 | 54% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 853 | 1157 | 15% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1035 | 1219 | 26% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1225 | 1026 | 76% | 2018-08-07 | Lost |
| 1193 | 960 | 79% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1080 | 1116 | 45% | 2016-03-30 | Won |
| 1054 | 1219 | 28% | 2014-05-14 | Won |
| 931 | 987 | 42% | 2014-02-20 | Won |
| 1061 | 1223 | 28% | 2013-10-07 | Won |
| 944 | 939 | 51% | 2013-09-08 | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | Won |
| 1030 | 1038 | 49% | 2013-01-16 | Tied |
| 1151 | 1037 | 66% | 2011-10-01 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1175 | 45% | 2011-08-09 | Won |
| 1228 | 1180 | 57% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 928 | 1029 | 36% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1113 | 46% | 2004-10-17 | Won |
| 1217 | 809 | 91% | 2001-03-01 | Won |
| 1067 | 1082 | 48% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 1029 | 872 | 71% | 1998-12-12 | Won |
| 1133 | 1225 | 37% | 1998-11-07 | Won |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1051.1 vs 1035 has a 52.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).