An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 125 (26 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 76
Defender wins (German): 47
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1011 | 955 | 58% | 2022-12-03 | Lost |
| 1015 | 997 | 53% | 2022-01-27 | Tied |
| 996 | 996 | 50% | 2022-01-18 | Won |
| 1126 | 970 | 71% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-03-30 | Lost |
| 907 | 888 | 53% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1011 | 53% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
| 981 | 964 | 52% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 857 | 1140 | 16% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1034 | 1109 | 39% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1190 | 961 | 79% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1080 | 996 | 62% | 2016-03-30 | Won |
| 1054 | 1109 | 42% | 2014-05-14 | Won |
| 1087 | 1223 | 31% | 2013-10-07 | Won |
| 978 | 939 | 56% | 2013-09-08 | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | Won |
| 1030 | 1038 | 49% | 2013-01-16 | Tied |
| 1151 | 1037 | 66% | 2011-10-01 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1168 | 46% | 2011-08-09 | Won |
| 1228 | 1180 | 57% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 928 | 1030 | 36% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1113 | 41% | 2004-10-17 | Won |
| 1099 | 965 | 68% | 2001-03-01 | Won |
| 1101 | 1047 | 58% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 1058 | 872 | 74% | 1998-12-12 | Won |
| 1138 | 1227 | 37% | 1998-11-07 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1046.1 vs 1035.5 has a 51.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).