An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 134 (35 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 62
Defender wins (German): 69
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Polish): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 849 | 1032 | 26% | 2026-02-18 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1072 | 50% | 2025-10-17 | Won |
| 934 | 1147 | 23% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 1032 | 849 | 74% | 2025-01-15 | Won |
| 1012 | 948 | 59% | 2022-12-03 | Lost |
| 1015 | 997 | 53% | 2022-01-27 | Tied |
| 1060 | 1022 | 55% | 2022-01-18 | Won |
| 1102 | 887 | 78% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-03-30 | Lost |
| 941 | 888 | 58% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1037 | 46% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
| 993 | 964 | 54% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 851 | 1123 | 17% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1035 | 1064 | 46% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1234 | 1080 | 71% | 2018-08-07 | Lost |
| 1221 | 958 | 82% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1079 | 1060 | 53% | 2016-03-30 | Won |
| 1053 | 1064 | 48% | 2014-05-14 | Won |
| 983 | 986 | 50% | 2014-02-20 | Won |
| 983 | 1226 | 20% | 2013-10-07 | Won |
| 947 | 939 | 51% | 2013-09-08 | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | Won |
| 1027 | 1038 | 48% | 2013-01-16 | Tied |
| 1151 | 1036 | 66% | 2011-10-01 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1140 | 36% | 2011-09-23 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1192 | 38% | 2011-08-09 | Won |
| 1233 | 1180 | 58% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 929 | 1036 | 35% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1113 | 37% | 2004-10-17 | Won |
| 1175 | 1045 | 68% | 2001-03-01 | Won |
| 1032 | 1140 | 35% | 2000-10-06 | Won |
| 1140 | 970 | 73% | 1999-10-08 | Won |
| 1110 | 1023 | 62% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 1019 | 873 | 70% | 1998-12-12 | Won |
| 1159 | 1234 | 39% | 1998-11-07 | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1042.5 vs 1038.6 has a 50.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).