First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 12
Defender wins (British): 5
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2022-12-04 | Lost |
| 1069 | 918 | 70% | 2020-12-13 | Won |
| 932 | 1216 | 16% | 2020-07-05 | Won |
| 1099 | 1133 | 45% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1011 | 1030 | 47% | 2019-05-22 | Lost |
| 1181 | 1011 | 73% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 970 | 978 | 49% | 2017-10-08 | Won |
| 997 | 1049 | 43% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 1087 | 906 | 74% | 2015-05-05 | Won |
| 1087 | 1018 | 60% | 2014-04-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1018 | 958 | 59% | 2009-03-13 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1098 | 67% | 2003-04-27 | Won |
| 1047 | 1101 | 42% | 2000-07-08 | Won |
| 1099 | 1149 | 43% | 2000-05-30 | Won |
| 1160 | 1138 | 53% | | Won |
| 1138 | 844 | 84% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1075.8 vs 1042.5 has a 54.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).