First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 12
Defender wins (British): 5
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2022-12-04 | Lost |
| 1078 | 920 | 71% | 2020-12-13 | Won |
| 932 | 1219 | 16% | 2020-07-05 | Won |
| 1099 | 1133 | 45% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1063 | 981 | 62% | 2019-05-22 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1032 | 66% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 947 | 944 | 50% | 2017-10-08 | Won |
| 979 | 1031 | 43% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 1061 | 906 | 71% | 2015-05-05 | Won |
| 1061 | 1051 | 51% | 2014-04-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1018 | 945 | 60% | 2009-03-13 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1098 | 67% | 2003-04-27 | Won |
| 1082 | 1067 | 52% | 2000-07-08 | Won |
| 1223 | 1120 | 64% | 2000-05-30 | Won |
| 1121 | 1117 | 51% | | Won |
| 1117 | 847 | 83% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1077.8 vs 1034.5 has a 56.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).