Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 173 (25 on the archive and 148 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 83
Defender wins (German): 89
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1007 | 1037 | 46% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 1060 | 1022 | 55% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1175 | 1027 | 70% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1221 | 954 | 82% | 2020-12-06 | Won |
| 948 | 1012 | 41% | 2019-03-14 | Won |
| 995 | 1216 | 22% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1131 | 34% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-11-06 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1060 | 53% | 2016-04-12 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1232 | 27% | 2016-02-03 | Tied |
| 1037 | 947 | 63% | 2012-07-01 | Lost |
| 952 | 1110 | 29% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2011-01-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 920 | 61% | 2009-08-27 | Won |
| 950 | 1059 | 35% | 2008-05-07 | Lost |
| 1059 | 950 | 65% | 2008-02-27 | Won |
| 1190 | 1033 | 71% | 2007-11-11 | Won |
| 1328 | 1344 | 48% | 2002-08-07 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1060 | 66% | 2002-06-22 | Won |
| 873 | 1019 | 30% | 2000-10-01 | Won |
| 1087 | 1059 | 54% | 1998-08-02 | Lost |
| 941 | 983 | 44% | 1998-06-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1233 | 24% | 1997-10-19 | Won |
| 1233 | 1013 | 78% | 1997-10-18 | Won |
| 1159 | 987 | 73% | 1997-04-19 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1071 vs 1063.1 has a 51.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).