Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (Russian): 13
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1013 | 52% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 1063 | 1030 | 55% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1153 | 1018 | 69% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1270 | 1007 | 82% | 2020-12-06 | Won |
| 949 | 805 | 70% | 2019-03-14 | Won |
| 995 | 1216 | 22% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 805 | 1109 | 15% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-11-06 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1063 | 52% | 2016-04-12 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1333 | 17% | 2016-02-03 | Tied |
| 1037 | 962 | 61% | 2012-07-01 | Lost |
| 968 | 1100 | 32% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2011-01-08 | Won |
| 1001 | 919 | 62% | 2009-08-27 | Won |
| 950 | 1068 | 34% | 2008-05-07 | Lost |
| 1068 | 950 | 66% | 2008-02-27 | Won |
| 1143 | 1033 | 65% | 2007-11-11 | Won |
| 1153 | 1084 | 60% | 2002-06-22 | Won |
| 869 | 1002 | 32% | 2000-10-01 | Won |
| 1067 | 1068 | 50% | 1998-08-02 | Lost |
| 942 | 1051 | 35% | 1998-06-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1228 | 25% | 1997-10-19 | Won |
| 1228 | 1014 | 77% | 1997-10-18 | Won |
| 1163 | 985 | 74% | 1997-04-19 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1051.2 vs 1051.1 has a 50.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).