Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (Russian): 13
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1047 | 996 | 57% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 1041 | 1030 | 52% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1182 | 1018 | 72% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1253 | 936 | 86% | 2020-12-06 | Won |
| 948 | 984 | 45% | 2019-03-14 | Won |
| 995 | 1216 | 22% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 984 | 1113 | 32% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-11-06 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1041 | 56% | 2016-04-12 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1340 | 16% | 2016-02-03 | Tied |
| 1037 | 962 | 61% | 2012-07-01 | Lost |
| 980 | 1090 | 35% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2011-01-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 919 | 61% | 2009-08-27 | Won |
| 950 | 1068 | 34% | 2008-05-07 | Lost |
| 1068 | 950 | 66% | 2008-02-27 | Won |
| 1143 | 1033 | 65% | 2007-11-11 | Won |
| 1182 | 1086 | 63% | 2002-06-22 | Won |
| 869 | 1031 | 28% | 2000-10-01 | Won |
| 1067 | 1068 | 50% | 1998-08-02 | Lost |
| 942 | 1029 | 38% | 1998-06-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1228 | 25% | 1997-10-19 | Won |
| 1228 | 1014 | 77% | 1997-10-18 | Won |
| 1174 | 985 | 75% | 1997-04-19 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1061 vs 1054.4 has a 50.95% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).