Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (Russian): 12
Defender wins (German): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1036 | 1007 | 54% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 1095 | 1030 | 59% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1202 | 1018 | 74% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1252 | 1020 | 79% | 2020-12-06 | Won |
| 944 | 1020 | 39% | 2019-03-14 | Won |
| 995 | 1209 | 23% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1132 | 34% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2016-11-06 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1095 | 48% | 2016-04-12 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1313 | 18% | 2016-02-03 | Tied |
| 1037 | 975 | 59% | 2012-07-01 | Lost |
| 994 | 1153 | 29% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2011-01-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 920 | 61% | 2009-08-27 | Won |
| 1148 | 1033 | 66% | 2007-11-11 | Won |
| 1202 | 1095 | 65% | 2002-06-22 | Won |
| 869 | 1057 | 25% | 2000-10-01 | Won |
| 942 | 1075 | 32% | 1998-06-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1228 | 25% | 1997-10-19 | Won |
| 1228 | 1013 | 78% | 1997-10-18 | Won |
| 1105 | 986 | 66% | 1997-04-19 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1068.6 vs 1073.7 has a 49.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).