Swan Song
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (13 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 31
Defender wins (German): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 865 | 865 | 50% | 2024-04-19 | Lost |
| 909 | 1102 | 25% | 2020-11-02 | Lost |
| 948 | 759 | 75% | 2020-04-03 | Won |
| 961 | 1039 | 39% | 2020-02-04 | Lost |
| 959 | 1127 | 28% | 2019-09-10 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1075 | 48% | 2016-03-15 | Won |
| 1058 | 1075 | 48% | 2016-03-15 | Won |
| 1058 | 1075 | 48% | 2016-03-15 | Won |
| 1058 | 1075 | 48% | 2016-03-15 | Won |
| 1058 | 1075 | 48% | 2016-03-15 | Won |
| 1162 | 1076 | 62% | 2003-07-10 | Won |
| 1117 | 1117 | 50% | 1994-03-29 | Won |
| 1153 | 1082 | 60% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1028 vs 1041.7 has a 48.03% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).