Swan Song
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (13 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 31
Defender wins (German): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 865 | 1000 | 31% | 2024-04-19 | | Lost |
| 904 | 1102 | 24% | 2020-11-02 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2020-04-03 | | Won |
| 962 | 1039 | 39% | 2020-02-04 | | Lost |
| 959 | 1127 | 28% | 2019-09-10 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2016-03-15 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2016-03-15 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2016-03-15 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2016-03-15 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2016-03-15 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1159 | 50% | 2003-07-10 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1120 | 50% | 1994-03-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 1988-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1016.1 vs 1046.4 has a 45.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).