Totsugeki!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 137 (63 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 71
Defender wins (Chinese): 66
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2025-04-06 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2025-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1140 | 1037 | 64% | 2022-09-23 | | Won |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2021-05-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 2020-10-23 | | Won |
| 932 | 1102 | 27% | 2020-09-05 | | Lost |
| 967 | 980 | 48% | 2020-08-12 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1018 | 47% | 2020-08-09 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1258 | 37% | 2020-07-31 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1055 | 62% | 2020-05-15 | | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2020-05-09 | | Won |
| 1049 | 1147 | 36% | 2020-04-12 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2020-03-21 | | Lost |
| 998 | 920 | 61% | 2020-01-29 | | Won |
| 1024 | 1263 | 20% | 2019-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1003 | 966 | 55% | 2018-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2017-06-24 | | Won |
| 959 | 991 | 45% | 2017-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1070 | 974 | 63% | 2016-09-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 932 | 60% | 2016-06-06 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2016-04-20 | | Won |
| 990 | 692 | 85% | 2015-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1116 | 39% | 2015-02-16 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1219 | 19% | 2015-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2015-01-23 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 966 | 73% | 2014-10-11 | | Won |
| 1085 | 1033 | 57% | 2014-07-02 | | Won |
| 921 | 1071 | 30% | 2013-11-23 | | Won |
| 1258 | 1174 | 62% | 2013-11-23 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-05-09 | | Won |
| 1045 | 996 | 57% | 2013-03-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2013-02-14 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2011-08-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 936 | 59% | 2011-06-04 | | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1253 | 1019 | 79% | 2010-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 938 | 66% | 2010-09-19 | | Won |
| 1126 | 1003 | 67% | 2009-07-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2009-06-09 | | Lost |
| 957 | 951 | 51% | 2009-06-05 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2008-08-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2007-11-03 | | Lost |
| 1317 | 1263 | 58% | 2007-07-11 | | Lost |
| 997 | 1040 | 44% | 2007-05-27 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2006-10-07 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2006-04-21 | | Won |
| 1140 | 1096 | 56% | 2006-03-31 | | Won |
| 1174 | 1000 | 73% | 2006-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2005-07-29 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1209 | 26% | 2005-07-13 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1269 | 17% | 2004-10-29 | | Lost |
| 1144 | 1263 | 34% | 2004-05-29 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2001-06-23 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 1998-12-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 1998-08-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 1997-12-24 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 1997-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1000 | 68% | 1997-09-20 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1134 | 39% | 1996-12-07 | | Won |
| 1055 | 1088 | 45% | 1995-08-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 1995-08-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (34 wins) average ELOs: 1052.8 vs 1044.5 has a 51.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).