Wintergewitter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 360 (52 on the archive and 308 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 180
Defender wins (Russian): 179
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 961 | 1002 | 44% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2026-01-02 | Won |
| 1167 | 1204 | 45% | 2025-01-27 | Won |
| 1215 | 1204 | 52% | 2025-01-27 | Won |
| 1057 | 1160 | 36% | 2025-01-26 | Won |
| 1037 | 1007 | 54% | 2023-09-06 | Lost |
| 948 | 938 | 51% | 2021-12-14 | Won |
| 938 | 1131 | 25% | 2021-04-21 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1032 | 55% | 2021-02-02 | Lost |
| 984 | 944 | 56% | 2020-09-24 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1186 | 61% | 2020-09-15 | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2020-06-21 | Won |
| 1035 | 1064 | 46% | 2019-05-17 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 953 | 1264 | 14% | 2017-01-21 | Lost |
| 943 | 1206 | 18% | 2016-12-18 | Won |
| 933 | 1146 | 23% | 2016-12-10 | Won |
| 1023 | 964 | 58% | 2016-08-27 | Won |
| 976 | 1134 | 29% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 1245 | 1072 | 73% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 890 | 942 | 43% | 2014-08-18 | Won |
| 1019 | 939 | 61% | 2013-10-11 | Won |
| 1071 | 951 | 67% | 2013-08-27 | Won |
| 1343 | 1038 | 85% | 2012-11-10 | Won |
| 1005 | 996 | 51% | 2012-10-27 | Won |
| 1096 | 1085 | 52% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1023 | 50% | 2011-08-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1125 | 37% | 2010-12-28 | Won |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2009-12-05 | Won |
| 1152 | 1125 | 54% | 2009-10-04 | Won |
| 1150 | 1268 | 34% | 2006-09-09 | Won |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2006-08-18 | Won |
| 1430 | 902 | 95% | 2006-06-16 | Won |
| 1176 | 1061 | 66% | 2006-04-15 | Won |
| 1286 | 1234 | 57% | 2006-02-26 | Lost |
| 1167 | 1061 | 65% | 2005-08-14 | Won |
| 1049 | 1061 | 48% | 2005-08-04 | Won |
| 1096 | 975 | 67% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 997 | 975 | 53% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 1002 | 1073 | 40% | 2004-02-09 | Won |
| 983 | 958 | 54% | 2003-11-11 | Won |
| 1000 | 1162 | 28% | 2002-06-22 | Lost |
| 908 | 975 | 40% | 2001-12-29 | Won |
| 1060 | 1070 | 49% | 2001-04-18 | Won |
| 1070 | 1060 | 51% | 2001-03-31 | Won |
| 1070 | 1060 | 51% | 2001-02-19 | Won |
| 1154 | 1023 | 68% | 2000-03-19 | Won |
| 987 | 1060 | 40% | 2000-01-22 | Won |
| 1060 | 1234 | 27% | 1999-10-30 | Won |
| 1052 | 1264 | 23% | 1998-04-25 | Lost |
| 982 | 1160 | 26% | 1996-07-28 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Won |
Attacking (40 wins) average ELOs: 1065.1 vs 1070.5 has a 49.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).