Wintergewitter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 359 (52 on the archive and 308 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 179
Defender wins (Russian): 180
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2026-01-07 | | Lost |
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2026-01-02 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1183 | 56% | 2025-01-27 | | Won |
| 1078 | 1167 | 37% | 2025-01-26 | | Won |
| 1085 | 966 | 66% | 2023-09-06 | D | Lost |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2021-12-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2021-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-02-02 | | Lost |
| 985 | 955 | 54% | 2020-09-24 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2020-09-15 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2020-06-21 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1134 | 36% | 2019-05-17 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-03-24 | | Won |
| 953 | 1242 | 16% | 2017-01-21 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1283 | 34% | 2016-12-18 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1001 | 58% | 2016-12-10 | | Won |
| 1023 | 964 | 58% | 2016-08-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2015-05-23 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1116 | 42% | 2014-11-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2014-11-07 | | Won |
| 891 | 943 | 43% | 2014-08-18 | | Won |
| 1080 | 938 | 69% | 2013-10-11 | | Won |
| 1071 | 951 | 67% | 2013-08-27 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2012-11-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2012-10-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1183 | 26% | 2012-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1025 | 1025 | 50% | 2011-08-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1125 | 33% | 2010-12-28 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2009-12-05 | | Won |
| 1152 | 1125 | 54% | 2009-10-04 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2006-09-09 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2006-08-18 | | Won |
| 1435 | 902 | 96% | 2006-06-16 | | Won |
| 1176 | 1022 | 71% | 2006-04-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2006-02-26 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1022 | 76% | 2005-08-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2005-08-04 | | Won |
| 1096 | 1018 | 61% | 2004-12-14 | | Won |
| 997 | 1018 | 47% | 2004-12-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1073 | 40% | 2004-02-09 | | Won |
| 1055 | 959 | 63% | 2003-11-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2002-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1018 | 47% | 2001-12-29 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2001-04-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2001-03-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2001-02-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1025 | 46% | 2000-03-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2000-01-22 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 1999-10-30 | | Won |
| 1043 | 1242 | 24% | 1998-04-25 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1167 | 26% | 1996-07-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (39 wins) average ELOs: 1059.2 vs 1051.4 has a 51.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).