Wintergewitter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 347 (42 on the archive and 305 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 199
Defender wins (Russian): 147
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1158 | 1107 | 57% | 2025-01-27 | Won |
| 1046 | 1107 | 41% | 2025-01-27 | Won |
| 1057 | 1115 | 42% | 2025-01-26 | Won |
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2023-09-06 | Lost |
| 946 | 764 | 74% | 2021-12-14 | Won |
| 764 | 1143 | 10% | 2021-04-21 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1035 | 60% | 2021-02-02 | Lost |
| 984 | 945 | 56% | 2020-09-24 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2020-06-21 | Won |
| 1035 | 1181 | 30% | 2019-05-17 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 964 | 1268 | 15% | 2016-12-18 | Won |
| 1048 | 995 | 58% | 2016-12-10 | Won |
| 1023 | 964 | 58% | 2016-08-27 | Won |
| 977 | 1060 | 38% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 1244 | 1098 | 70% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 890 | 942 | 43% | 2014-08-18 | Won |
| 1036 | 938 | 64% | 2013-10-11 | Won |
| 1067 | 951 | 66% | 2013-08-27 | Won |
| 1001 | 932 | 60% | 2012-10-27 | Won |
| 1097 | 1044 | 58% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2011-08-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1125 | 37% | 2010-12-28 | Won |
| 1041 | 1027 | 52% | 2009-12-05 | Won |
| 1151 | 1125 | 54% | 2009-10-04 | Won |
| 1413 | 901 | 95% | 2006-06-16 | Won |
| 1285 | 1329 | 44% | 2006-02-26 | Lost |
| 1158 | 994 | 72% | 2005-08-14 | Won |
| 1095 | 1046 | 57% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 996 | 1046 | 43% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 1002 | 1073 | 40% | 2004-02-09 | Won |
| 1052 | 1008 | 56% | 2003-11-11 | Won |
| 1000 | 1189 | 25% | 2002-06-22 | Lost |
| 911 | 1046 | 31% | 2001-12-29 | Won |
| 1050 | 1070 | 47% | 2001-04-18 | Won |
| 1070 | 1050 | 53% | 2001-03-31 | Won |
| 1070 | 1050 | 53% | 2001-02-19 | Won |
| 1154 | 1064 | 63% | 2000-03-19 | Won |
| 985 | 1050 | 41% | 2000-01-22 | Won |
| 1050 | 1233 | 26% | 1999-10-30 | Won |
| 982 | 1115 | 32% | 1996-07-28 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1052.9 vs 1058.1 has a 49.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).