The Waterhole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (17 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 52
Defender wins (American): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 968 | 968 | 50% | 2025-05-25 | | Lost |
| 960 | 1039 | 39% | 2024-01-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-10-13 | | Won |
| 1261 | 1000 | 82% | 2021-11-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1079 | 39% | 2007-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1027 | 1036 | 49% | 2006-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1206 | 1000 | 77% | 2004-04-25 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1099 | 34% | 2002-01-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1044 | 44% | 2002-01-28 | | Won |
| 1099 | 1141 | 44% | 2002-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2000-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1206 | 23% | 1999-05-02 | | Lost |
| 1206 | 1000 | 77% | 1998-10-25 | | Won |
| 866 | 1044 | 26% | 1998-09-06 | | Lost |
| 967 | 1206 | 20% | 1997-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1189 | 25% | | | Won |
| 1189 | 832 | 89% | | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1045.1 vs 1051.9 has a 49.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).