The Waterhole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 87 (12 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 51
Defender wins (American): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1123 | 1123 | 50% | 2025-05-25 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1022 | 50% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 864 | 1070 | 23% | 2023-10-13 | Won |
| 1131 | 937 | 75% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1027 | 1041 | 48% | 2006-12-02 | Lost |
| 982 | 1127 | 30% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 985 | 1063 | 39% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 1127 | 1130 | 50% | 2002-01-17 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1048 | 48% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 866 | 1063 | 24% | 1998-09-06 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1103 | 48% | | Won |
| 1103 | 830 | 83% | | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1029.4 vs 1046.4 has a 47.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).