The Waterhole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 87 (12 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 51
Defender wins (American): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1134 | 1134 | 50% | 2025-05-25 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1008 | 54% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 864 | 1047 | 26% | 2023-10-13 | Won |
| 1117 | 1126 | 49% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1027 | 1041 | 48% | 2006-12-02 | Lost |
| 982 | 1174 | 25% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 985 | 1068 | 38% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 1174 | 1130 | 56% | 2002-01-17 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1048 | 48% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 866 | 1068 | 24% | 1998-09-06 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1117 | 46% | | Won |
| 1117 | 831 | 84% | | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1035.4 vs 1066 has a 45.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).