The Weigh In
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 52 (9 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 15
Defender wins (Polish): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1120 | 50% | 2025-10-22 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2024-03-09 | | Tied |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2022-12-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2016-09-17 | | Won |
| 987 | 1170 | 26% | 2003-04-23 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2000-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2000-10-22 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2000-04-21 | | Lost |
| 993 | 1056 | 41% | 2000-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 993.9 vs 1059.3 has a 40.69% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).