Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 116 (22 on the archive and 94 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 57
Defender wins (French): 59
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1215 | 1149 | 59% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1058 | 987 | 60% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1008 | 991 | 52% | 2020-07-14 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1065 | 71% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1110 | 47% | 2019-06-28 | Won |
| 973 | 1061 | 38% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1061 | 54% | 2018-05-18 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2018-04-10 | Won |
| 944 | 944 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1240 | 1026 | 77% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1047 | 1014 | 55% | 2017-05-20 | Won |
| 945 | 939 | 51% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 945 | 959 | 48% | 2015-11-06 | Won |
| 870 | 982 | 34% | 2012-09-02 | Won |
| 870 | 1094 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | Lost |
| 1316 | 1110 | 77% | 2011-10-29 | Won |
| 1121 | 1130 | 49% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1204 | 28% | 2007-09-08 | Won |
| 1045 | 1147 | 36% | 2006-02-26 | Won |
| 1082 | 1041 | 56% | 2004-03-20 | Won |
| 928 | 1107 | 26% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1117 | 64% | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1062.6 vs 1061.4 has a 50.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).