The Dead of Winter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 45
Attacker wins (Russian): 18
Defender wins (German): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 936 | 738 | 76% | 2025-07-13 | Won |
| 960 | 1096 | 31% | 2025-06-16 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1053 | 71% | 2024-04-07 | Lost |
| 961 | 1181 | 22% | 2023-04-27 | Won |
| 1143 | 904 | 80% | 2022-11-01 | Lost |
| 964 | 1032 | 40% | 2022-08-20 | Lost |
| 985 | 985 | 50% | 2022-08-15 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-03-06 | Won |
| 892 | 971 | 39% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1022 | 1053 | 46% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1254 | 33% | 2021-03-25 | Won |
| 1025 | 902 | 67% | 2020-11-08 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1009 | 70% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1109 | 1218 | 35% | 2019-03-08 | Lost |
| 1020 | 964 | 58% | 2018-11-17 | Won |
| 764 | 946 | 26% | 2018-08-14 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1034 | 63% | 2018-07-23 | Lost |
| 875 | 846 | 54% | 2017-10-17 | Lost |
| 909 | 1020 | 35% | 2017-02-22 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1074 | 52% | 2017-01-05 | Tied |
| 926 | 1206 | 17% | 2016-11-28 | Won |
| 1033 | 1010 | 53% | 2016-02-22 | Lost |
| 764 | 1143 | 10% | 2014-09-07 | Lost |
| 1143 | 764 | 90% | 2014-08-22 | Won |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2013-08-18 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2013-06-28 | Lost |
| 900 | 1063 | 28% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2012-11-18 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1094 | 58% | 2012-11-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 940 | 77% | 2012-11-01 | Won |
| 974 | 1163 | 25% | 2011-09-25 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1163 | 43% | 2011-09-12 | Won |
| 1163 | 964 | 76% | 2011-09-05 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1182 | 46% | 2011-07-08 | Won |
| 989 | 1060 | 40% | 2009-09-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 1188 | 20% | 2009-08-30 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1041 | 50% | 2008-04-13 | Won |
| 1329 | 1413 | 38% | 2006-09-12 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1041 | 72% | 2006-05-26 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2005-01-07 | Lost |
| 993 | 1036 | 44% | 2004-03-01 | Won |
| 1067 | 1050 | 52% | 2003-08-29 | Won |
| 1044 | 1044 | 50% | 1998-04-28 | Lost |
| 930 | 1189 | 18% | 1994-07-15 | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1032.8 vs 1047.5 has a 47.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).