The Dead of Winter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38
Attacker wins (Russian): 13
Defender wins (German): 24
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 908 | 1053 | 30% | 2024-04-07 | Lost |
| 929 | 1195 | 18% | 2023-04-27 | Won |
| 1195 | 904 | 84% | 2022-11-01 | Lost |
| 964 | 1059 | 37% | 2022-08-20 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2022-08-15 | Lost |
| 957 | 957 | 50% | 2022-03-06 | Won |
| 892 | 971 | 39% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1036 | 1053 | 48% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1204 | 39% | 2021-03-25 | Won |
| 1028 | 900 | 68% | 2020-11-08 | Lost |
| 1158 | 923 | 79% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1108 | 1218 | 35% | 2019-03-08 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1009 | 50% | 2018-11-17 | Won |
| 865 | 954 | 37% | 2018-08-14 | Lost |
| 880 | 848 | 55% | 2017-10-17 | Lost |
| 927 | 1020 | 37% | 2017-02-22 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1030 | 49% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1051 | 1051 | 50% | 2017-01-05 | Tied |
| 931 | 940 | 49% | 2016-11-28 | Won |
| 962 | 1083 | 33% | 2016-02-22 | Lost |
| 865 | 1195 | 13% | 2014-09-07 | Lost |
| 1195 | 865 | 87% | 2014-08-22 | Won |
| 1099 | 1083 | 52% | 2013-08-18 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2013-06-28 | Lost |
| 900 | 1164 | 18% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2012-11-18 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1136 | 32% | 2011-09-25 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1136 | 51% | 2011-09-12 | Won |
| 1136 | 955 | 74% | 2011-09-05 | Lost |
| 989 | 1023 | 45% | 2009-09-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 1190 | 20% | 2009-08-30 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1126 | 35% | 2008-04-13 | Won |
| 1302 | 1405 | 36% | 2006-09-12 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1037 | 72% | 2006-05-26 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2005-01-07 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1024 | 49% | 2004-03-01 | Won |
| 1024 | 1044 | 47% | 1998-04-28 | Lost |
| 930 | 1205 | 17% | 1994-07-15 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1020.9 vs 1052.5 has a 45.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).