Auld Lang Syne
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (24 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 54
Defender wins (American): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2026-07-14 | Won |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2025-01-08 | Won |
| 954 | 951 | 50% | 2024-12-31 | Won |
| 1109 | 1132 | 47% | 2024-09-28 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1109 | 53% | 2024-07-21 | Won |
| 943 | 943 | 50% | 2024-01-01 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1031 | 55% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1173 | 50% | 2023-12-12 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1102 | 66% | 2022-05-30 | Lost |
| 948 | 938 | 51% | 2022-05-28 | Won |
| 948 | 938 | 51% | 2022-05-04 | Lost |
| 910 | 950 | 44% | 2020-08-04 | Won |
| 950 | 1099 | 30% | 2019-06-13 | Lost |
| 1047 | 995 | 57% | 2015-07-15 | Won |
| 959 | 1009 | 43% | 2015-03-21 | Lost |
| 1107 | 972 | 69% | 2014-02-22 | Won |
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2014-02-12 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1101 | 67% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 971 | 963 | 51% | 2012-09-15 | Won |
| 971 | 963 | 51% | 2012-09-15 | Won |
| 966 | 1042 | 39% | 2010-10-02 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-01-26 | Won |
| 1120 | 1058 | 59% | 2004-11-29 | Lost |
| 984 | 1060 | 39% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1036.5 vs 1021 has a 52.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).