Gambit
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 102 (19 on the archive and 83 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 31
Defender wins (German): 70
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1135 | 1113 | 53% | 2025-04-27 | Won |
| 1113 | 1135 | 47% | 2025-03-30 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1113 | 53% | 2025-02-16 | Won |
| 1056 | 984 | 60% | 2024-03-25 | Lost |
| 948 | 1056 | 35% | 2020-08-08 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1107 | 52% | 2017-06-01 | Lost |
| 851 | 1123 | 17% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 943 | 1099 | 29% | 2015-10-14 | Lost |
| 1002 | 998 | 51% | 2014-02-14 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1062 | 48% | 2010-01-01 | Won |
| 1251 | 1163 | 62% | 2007-09-22 | Won |
| 966 | 1035 | 40% | 2005-06-29 | Lost |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2005-05-20 | Lost |
| 998 | 1034 | 45% | 2002-12-07 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1043 | 48% | 1999-12-27 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1159 | 44% | 1998-10-25 | Won |
| 1263 | 1290 | 46% | 1998-10-14 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1021 | 53% | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1021 | 53% | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1054.1 vs 1080.5 has a 46.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).