Gambit
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 101 (19 on the archive and 83 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 31
Defender wins (German): 70
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1132 | 1000 | 68% | 2025-04-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2025-03-30 | | Lost |
| 1132 | 1000 | 68% | 2025-02-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2024-03-25 | A | Lost |
| 945 | 1000 | 42% | 2020-08-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2017-06-01 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1123 | 17% | 2017-01-14 | | Lost |
| 1001 | 1037 | 45% | 2015-10-14 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2014-02-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1062 | 41% | 2010-01-01 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2007-09-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2005-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 973 | 54% | 2005-05-20 | | Lost |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2002-12-07 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 1999-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1125 | 33% | 1998-10-25 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 1998-10-14 | | Lost |
| 1070 | 1000 | 60% | | | Lost |
| 1070 | 1000 | 60% | | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1040.3 vs 1030.4 has a 51.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).