Simple Equation
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 309 (138 on the archive and 175 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 149
Defender wins (German): 157
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 2
Defender wins (German): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2026-03-19 | Won | |
| 942 | 1059 | 34% | 2026-03-08 | Won | |
| 1059 | 942 | 66% | 2026-02-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2025-10-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1090 | 37% | 2025-08-22 | Lost | |
| 1027 | 1000 | 54% | 2025-06-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2025-04-27 | Won | |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-04-12 | Lost | |
| 1035 | 1019 | 52% | 2025-03-06 | Won | |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2024-07-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1290 | 16% | 2024-07-18 | D | Lost |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2024-05-04 | A | Won |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-03-17 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1001 | 50% | 2024-02-02 | Lost | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2024-01-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2024-01-04 | Lost | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2023-12-27 | Won | |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2023-10-04 | Lost | |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2023-08-30 | Lost | |
| 1174 | 959 | 78% | 2023-06-30 | Won | |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2023-04-13 | D | Won |
| 1290 | 1000 | 84% | 2023-03-27 | A | Won |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2023-02-25 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2023-02-15 | Lost | |
| 1145 | 1000 | 70% | 2023-02-10 | Won | |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2023-01-26 | Won | |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2022-11-03 | Lost | |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-08-21 | Won | |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2022-08-17 | Won | |
| 996 | 1037 | 44% | 2022-07-13 | Won | |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2022-06-15 | Won | |
| 989 | 999 | 49% | 2022-03-09 | Won | |
| 1140 | 989 | 70% | 2022-02-10 | Won | |
| 1049 | 1140 | 37% | 2021-12-27 | Lost | |
| 1187 | 989 | 76% | 2021-12-06 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1143 | 31% | 2021-08-07 | Won | |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-07-17 | Lost | |
| 1056 | 1034 | 53% | 2021-06-09 | Lost | |
| 1034 | 989 | 56% | 2021-05-30 | Won | |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2021-05-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2021-04-20 | Won | |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2021-02-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1030 | 46% | 2021-02-20 | Lost | |
| 1030 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-02-20 | Won | |
| 1030 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-02-02 | Lost | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2021-01-22 | Won | |
| 1000 | 932 | 60% | 2020-11-29 | Won | |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2020-11-12 | Lost | |
| 989 | 985 | 51% | 2020-09-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2020-08-06 | Lost | |
| 1143 | 989 | 71% | 2020-07-20 | Won | |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2020-07-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2020-05-28 | Lost | |
| 989 | 1258 | 18% | 2020-05-24 | Lost | |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2020-04-23 | Won | |
| 992 | 1164 | 27% | 2020-04-03 | Won | |
| 926 | 1000 | 40% | 2020-04-02 | Won | |
| 998 | 1000 | 50% | 2019-12-26 | Won | |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2019-12-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1172 | 27% | 2019-11-21 | Won | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2019-10-03 | Won | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2019-09-25 | Lost | |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2019-09-07 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2019-09-07 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2019-08-31 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2019-08-08 | Won | |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2019-07-27 | Won | |
| 980 | 1000 | 47% | 2019-06-29 | Lost | |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2019-06-08 | Won | |
| 1133 | 945 | 75% | 2019-05-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2019-05-19 | Lost | |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2019-05-04 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2019-04-04 | Won | |
| 1000 | 936 | 59% | 2019-03-26 | Won | |
| 977 | 1015 | 45% | 2019-01-24 | Tied | |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2019-01-20 | Lost | |
| 965 | 1082 | 34% | 2018-12-08 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2018-11-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2018-08-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2018-08-05 | Lost | |
| 959 | 1000 | 44% | 2017-11-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 2017-09-08 | Lost | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-09-07 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-08-21 | Won | |
| 862 | 1000 | 31% | 2017-05-21 | Won | |
| 1135 | 1000 | 69% | 2017-05-13 | Won | |
| 1142 | 1000 | 69% | 2017-04-26 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2017-03-11 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-02-25 | Won | |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2017-01-30 | Lost | |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2016-12-19 | Won | |
| 1085 | 894 | 75% | 2016-11-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 890 | 65% | 2016-07-24 | Tied | |
| 885 | 966 | 39% | 2016-06-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2016-03-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2015-10-04 | Won | |
| 1033 | 926 | 65% | 2015-08-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-08-08 | Tied | |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2015-03-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2014-09-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 850 | 70% | 2014-06-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2014-01-11 | Lost | |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2012-08-27 | Lost | |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2012-07-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2012-04-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2011-12-28 | Lost | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2011-12-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2011-09-03 | Won | |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2011-07-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2010-11-20 | Lost | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2010-09-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 959 | 56% | 2010-05-12 | Lost | |
| 1215 | 993 | 78% | 2010-04-21 | Won | |
| 1039 | 1215 | 27% | 2010-03-28 | Won | |
| 936 | 1000 | 41% | 2009-11-24 | Won | |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2009-09-11 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2009-09-01 | Won | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2009-08-09 | Won | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2009-05-25 | Won | |
| 913 | 1000 | 38% | 2009-01-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2008-10-07 | Lost | |
| 946 | 1019 | 40% | 2008-02-14 | Lost | |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2008-01-15 | Lost | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2008-01-01 | Won | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2008-01-01 | Won | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2008-01-01 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2007-08-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2007-02-17 | Won | |
| 1134 | 1000 | 68% | 2007-01-17 | Won | |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-01-13 | Lost | |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2006-05-27 | Won | |
| 832 | 1195 | 11% | 2006-04-18 | Lost | |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2006-02-14 | Lost | |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2006-01-31 | Won | |
| 832 | 1000 | 28% | 2006-01-21 | Lost | |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2004-11-11 | Won | |
| 891 | 1000 | 35% | 2004-09-01 | Lost | |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2004-08-08 | Won |
Attacking (84 wins) average ELOs: 1025.5 vs 1025.6 has a 49.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).